Key Takeaways:
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Solana struggles to maintain $ 200 while onchain activity weakens and the demanded demand remains covered.
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An ETF approved area and institutional support may raise SOL, but current foundations suggest a limited potential rally.
Solana’s native token (Sol) has repeatedly failed to hold levels above $ 200 over the past six weeks, leading entrepreneurs to ask what is limiting the reverse. Remembering is raised by the fact that competitors ether (Eth) and bnb (Bnb) recently reached new all-time highs.
The potential approval of a solana Funds exchanged by the exchange (ETF) in the United States, accompanied by companies that have signed the goals to add Sol to their corporate reserve techniques, may push the token above $ 250. However, three conditions must be met before a sustainable rally can be handled.
The lazy onchain and futures data are cautious with investors
For Sol buyers to regain confidence, Solana’s onchain activity should be strengthened. Network fees fell 17% compared to last week, while the number of transactions dropped by 10%. Meanwhile, BNB chain fees rose 6%, while transaction levels remained flat. Ethereum’s layer-2 The activity also showed growth, with base transactions rising by 14% and arbitrum earned by 20%.
In the relative terms, Solana fees remain noticeable as noted by the $ 12.5 billion network in the total amount locked (TVL), compared to the Ethereum’s nearly $ 100 billion. However, Solana’s chain revenue refused 91% from January’s peak, a collapse in conjunction with the Launch of the official Trump (Trump) token and the wider Memecoin Frenzy.
Lack of demand for bullish leverage in sol futures increases with careful emotions.
In neutral conditions, eternal futures usually show an annual premium between 8% and 14%, which reflects capital costs and counterparts. The current 10% rate indicates a balanced demand, which is not naturally negative, but it is gentle about given that Sol’s price has gained 39% in the last two months.
Binance’s top-trader long ratio has moved sharply toward bearish positioning. This indicator provides a greater measure of emotion because it incorporates futures, margins, and spot markets.
Demand for bullish sol exposure to Binance has reached a monthly high on Saturday but has since dropped significantly. According to derivatives data, whales and market makers are not aggressive bearish, yet they remain careful about sol breaking more than $ 200.
Institution -back and actions in SEC remain mainly catalysts
Sol’s price showed a little reaction to reports that the Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto were Working to raise $ 1 billion For a company dedicated to Solana’s digital asset. Bloomberg added that the Solana Foundation endorsed the initiative, but the news failed to spark the momentum.
Related: Solana Devs charges $ 5k for single query by Google Cloud’s bigquery
The final obstacle for Sol’s path to $ 250 depends on the pending decision from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to many filings of Solana Spot ETF. Bloomberg’s analyst Eric Balchunas estimates the odds of approval above 90%, even though the SEC’s last deadline fell in mid-October.
While Sol could still climb above $ 200 before playing these catalysts, the likelihood of a sustainable rally remains low provided weaker onchain activity, limited demand for bullish leverage, and prolonged uncertainty around the outcome of the ETF.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be done as legal or investment advice. The views, attitudes, and opinions expressed here are unique and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of the cointelegraph.
