If Bitcoin continues to follow 2017 cycle, it could exceed $1 million by the end of the year: Van Straaten

The FTX crash may seem like a distant memory, when Bitcoin (BTC) fell to around $15,500 in November 2022. The prevailing sentiment during this period was one of intense fear, and the industry never thought it would recover.

But just over two years later, Bitcoin is trading at over $100,000 with a new supposedly crypto-friendly US administration in place. Donald Trump is now officially the 47th President of the United States, but he hasn’t announced anything yet Encryption policies.

One of the many discussions surrounding Bitcoin is the analysis of its four-year cycle, which centers around its halving program, which reduces supply every four years. We tend to see similar cycles occur, with significant price spikes in the year following the halving, while this current cycle continues to mirror the previous two.

So far, Bitcoin has risen about 550% from the cycle lows during the FTX collapse (black line). The chart shows that at this point in the current cycle, between the 2015 and 2018 cycles, the price of Bitcoin (blue line) has also risen by roughly a similar amount from the cycle low that occurred on January 14, 2015.

It is important to note that Glassnode data takes the day’s closing price at 00:00 UTC, which can differ from other trading platforms.

The green line shows that over the 2018 to 2022 cycle, at this point in the cycle, Bitcoin has risen by about 1,300%, more than double the gains the token has drawn so far.

If Bitcoin continues to track the 2015 to 2018 cycle, it will finish roughly 1,100% higher than the cycle low at the end of the first quarter of 2025, putting one bitcoin at $186,000. The peak in the cycle will then occur around October of this year at a higher rate of 11,000%, which puts the peak of the cycle at around $1.7 million.

There are many other ways to compare this to previous cycles, such as comparing it to US presidential administrations. As posted on X by Bitcoin ArchiveBitcoin rose 20 times during Donald Trump’s first term as president. A return of just 10x would put Bitcoin around $1 million from here.