Key Takeaways:
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The ratio of Binance Bitcoin/Stablecoin is close to the consistency of 1, a rare market signal.
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The metrics of the market structure show the price of BTC remains in an income regime but are susceptible to integration.
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A drop below $ 95,000 can trigger the first 50-week SMA bear signal to this cycle.
The Binance Bitcoin/Stablecoin ratio is approaching a rare history threshold in conjunction with the bottom of the market. The scale, which monitors the balance of bitcoin (Btc) Reserves against Stablecoin reserves in Binance, close to consistency to 1, a level last observed in March, when Bitcoin returned to $ 78,000 before rallying to $ 123,000 throughout the time.
Data from cryptoquant implies That this setup has appeared only twice since the last bear market, raising interest as a potential purchase signal. However, the catch is that in previous cycles, the ratio usually shines at the end of the bear markets in 2023 and more recently in March. Re -showing it in the current context can risk a wrong signal, perhaps indicating the start of a prolonged correction rather than a bottom.
Supporting the strength of the ratio, Binance’s ERC-20 Stablecoin reserves hit only a record of $ 37.8 billion, reflecting steady flow and deep liquidity. Investors in the exchange appear far from overexposed to BTC, fortified as the capital awaits the edges.
At the same time, bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. warned That the market remains in a “stages of adjustment.” The analyst noted that Bitcoin was sitting at $ 110,700, just above the short -term -held price of $ 107,600, a major monthly Bull Support support.
Structural indicators remain intact, with a generally realized price at $ 52,800 and the long -term holder realized the price at $ 35,600, both below the current levels. The net that did not realize that income/loss (NUPL) ratio to 0.53 suggests that the market is in a broad revenue regime but is still shy of euphoric extremes.
In short, higher timeframes remain bullish, but sensitivity to income acquisition means that the integration can expand. If the ratio of Binance is re -marking a point of which or instead signal the excitement will give the hinge to the ability of Bitcoin to hold basic support.
Related: Bitcoin’s ‘euphoric phase’ cools down while $ 112k becomes BTC’s main price level
Bitcoin’s 50-week SMA still refers to the risk of the bear market
Another critical gauge for Bitcoin is the 50-week simple transfer of average (SMA), which has continued to sign the cycle shifts since 2018. Historical data shows that every time Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below 50-sma, prolonged correction followed, with a 63% drawdown in 2018 and a 67% denial of 2022. Exceptions were at 2020, when the BTC was quickly rebound after the Covid-11 crash.
Since March 2023, Bitcoin has managed to stay above 50-SMA, with major retests in August 2024 and March 2025 failing to make a weekly close under the indicator. Based on the adjusted levels, the review estimates that a falling to $ 90,000 to $ 95,000 range can push the BTC below 50-smma for the first time in this cycle.
Such a step will deliver the first clear technical signal of a bear market, which raises the stakes for whether the current integration will solve the higher or slide to deeper correction.
Related: Bitcoin Bear Market Due to October with $ 50K Bottom Target: Review
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
