The bitcoin The Bull Run has been stuck with ongoing sales from long-term owner owners and a slowing down ETF flows. To exacerbate things, another smaller but significant market variable appears to be resistant to the BTC Bulls, which has signed new challenges on the horizon.
The variable market is the Move Index, created by Harley Bassman, a former director of the director at Merrill Lynch. Index calculates the indicated volatility using a weight average of choice prices in a month -long ark options in many maturations (2, 5, 10, and 30 years). This method obtains collective expectations of market participants about future interest rate movements.
The move index emerged from 77 to 89 in three days, marked by sharp increase since early April, when President Donald Trump’s tariffs were shaking in global markets, including Bitcoin, which fell to $ 75,000.
More importantly, momentum indicators such as the MACD have signed a clear bullish shift, suggesting that the index has prepared for continuous acquisitions. That calls on the care part of the Bitcoin Bulls, as the spelling of the higher expected volatility in the bond market, as the Intert Index captures, is known to cause a taste of liquidity around the world.
The US treasury notes are widely considered high quality liquid assets and form a foundation of the global collateral pool, which helps to reduce the risk of credit for lenders and facilitate a smooth flow of funds throughout the financial market.
Thus, increasing volatility in Treasury notes tend to disrupt liquidity, increase borrowing costs and create ripple effects throughout the credit market and the wider financial system. In these situations, lenders demand higher premium risks, and market participants return from riskier assets, which eventually slows down the flow of funds and increasing stress in the global markets.
Moreover, increased volatility in Treasury notes often motivate bondholders to reduce the risk of duration by moving from longer bonds (such as 10- or 30-year Treasury notes) In short -term security, such as two -year note or Treasury bills.
“Flight to Quality” or “Flight to Safety” is usually accompanied by a broader market sale, as investors reduce exposure to equality, corporate bonds, and other risk properties to keep capital amid volatility in the Treasury market.
Therefore, that is not surprising Historical rallies of btc price is characterized by refusal of the trends in index and vice versa.
To cut off the claim, the latest bounce in index transfer can exacerbate the BTC market disease, which potentially deepens price pullback.
