The time -time, approach (MSTR), NVIDIA (NVDA) and others offered mixes -halong signals
This is a study post by CoinDesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
As we approach the last quarter of 2025, the following basic charts provide an important insight to help crypto entrepreneurs navigate the emerging market landscape.
Bullish Pay -Time
Pan -time trends suggest a bullish Q4 view for both and The top two cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Since 2013, delivered an average return of 85% to the last quarter, according to data from coinglass, making Q4 history the strongest time for bulls.
November stands as the most Bullish month, with an average benefit of 46%, followed by October, which usually detects a 21% increase.
Also there is a possibility of performing well in the last three months of the year, though the strongest return to history has been in the first quarter since the beginning.
BTC’s 50-week SMA support
Bitcoin price drops 5% this week, Consistent with Bearish technical signals and seem set to expand losses in late August are close to $ 107,300. If the Bulls fail to defend that, the focus will switch to the 200-day simple moving average to $ 104,200.
The continued decline in price, accompanied by the historic Bitcoin pattern of approximately 16 to 18 months after a division of the event, could scare the bulls.
However, such concerns can be premature as long as the prices remain above the 50-week simple transfer of average (SMA). Moving this average continues to act as a support level, marked the end of the price corrections of the pullbacks during the current Bull run that began in early 2023.
Therefore, entrepreneurs should carefully watch the 50-week SMA, currently positioned around $ 98,900, as a major level for the broader market direction.
XRP/BTC Compression
The XRP, often called the “US Government Coin” by companies like the ARCA, has advanced 32% this year. However, despite this strong rally, the payment-focused cryptocurrency remains confined within a long-term trading range against Bitcoin (XRP/BTC), which shows the limited relative strength.
The XRP/BTC pair has been confined within a narrow trading range since early 2021, resulting in more than four years of low-volatility compression.
The recent price action near the upper border of this channel suggests that the bulls are gradually gaining control. A breakout from such a prolonged integration can trigger a strong rally to the XRP relative -child at BTC, as the accumulated energy from this squeeze is released.
Now, let’s turn to the charts to call for caution.
Breakout to Defiance Daily Target 2x Short Mstr ETF (SMST)
The Leveraged Anti-Strategy ETF (SMST), which aims to deliver daily investment results of -200%, or minus 2x, the daily percentage change in sharing bitcoin holder (MSTR), shines bullish signals.
The ETF price rises at a five-month high of $ 35.65, forming what appears to be an opposite head-and-and-shoulder pattern, characterized by a well-known trough (the head) stabbed by two smaller, almost equal troughs (the shoulders).
This pattern often suggests a potential bullish refinement, which suggests ETF can be gearing up for a significant upward move.
In other words, it shines a bearish signal for both BTC and approach, which is the largest public -listed BTC holder with a coin stash of 639,835 BTC.
Double Bottom of Dollar Index
Last week, I discussed the post-fed rate of cut-fed rate cut resilience as a potential headwind for risk properties, including cryptocurrencies.
The dollar index has been from land, which has established a double bottom around 96.30. It is a sign that the Bulls has successfully established the path of at least resistance to the higher part.
An ongoing move beyond 100.26, the high temporary recovery between the twins under the 96.30, will confirm the so -called double bottom breakout, opening the door for a move to 104.00.
Watch the pattern failure below 96.00, as it may lead to increased risk of getting into financial markets.
NVDA topping?
NVIDIA (NVDA), the world’s largest listed company by market value, and a bellwether for risk ownership, continues to flirt with the upper end of the vast channel identified on June 2024 and November 2024 highs and lows hit on August 2024 and April 2025.
The rally has stopped at the upper pace since late July with a sign of bullish fatigue. If it drops from it, it can signal the start of a period of risk off in global markets, including cryptocurrencies.
