Many investors are currently looking at Bitcoin through an end-of-cycle lens, suggesting that Q4 can mark close to the current market cycle. However, the two main metrics point to the possibility that the bull market may actually be in its early stages.
Glassnode data shows that the 200-week transfer of average (200WMA), which alleviates bitcoin prices on a long-term horizon and has only history trending upwards, has just violated $ 53,000.
Meanwhile, the realized priceThe average price at which all Bitcoin in circulation last moves to Onchain, only increases above 200-WMA to $ 54,000.
Returning to the previous cycles, we see a consistent pattern. In the bull markets, the realized price tends to stay above 200-WMA, while in the bear markets, the opposite occurs.
For example, in the 2017 and 2021 Bull Market, the realized price continued to climb higher and expanded its gap above 200-WMA, before later it collapsed below it and signed the start of the bear markets.
Whereas, in the fall of 2022, the realized price fell under 200-WMA, it recently moved above it. Historically, once the realized price remains above the long -term transfer of this average, Bitcoin tends to push higher as the bull market is emerging.
