News of Bitcoin (BTC): Crash on the table while the four-year cycle is dead: Arthur hayes
Bitcoin is not likely to enter a bear market in the coming months as financial support conditions are expected to prevail, effectively rendering traditional four-year round halves that are obsolete, according to Arthur Hayes, chief investment official and Maelstrom co-founder.
In an essay titled “Long Live The King!” Published Thursday, Arthur Hayes argued that the main catalyst behind the past Bitcoin Bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were financially strict in major economies, not the four-year halving cycle. On each of these occasions, the price of Bitcoin fell 70% to 80% from the peak of the bull market.
CoinDesk made a similar point In 2023, explaining that the four-year Bull-Bon rotation of the BTC’s bull-bon-centered around mining halvings was actually tied to fluctuations in the supply of money and money money, rather than just the stopping of events.
“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is on us, entrepreneurs want to apply the historical pattern and guess the end in this bull run,” Hayes wrote, explaining that the four-year cycle is dead and that the upcoming Fiat Liquidity Delube will keep the bull market.
The halving cycle
The stop refers to the programmed reduction in the per-block release of the BTC every four years.
Since it began in 2009, the BTC has usually followed a nearly four -year cycle, characterized by a bull run leading to and following the quadrennial reward halving, followed by an extreme bear market that usually starts 16 to 18 months after dividing the event.
The latest, fourth stop of Bitcoin took place in April 2024. Therefore, some market participants may be concerned that BTC’s uttrending is about to rush, which will potentially pave the way for the one-year bear market.
This time is different
The continuous bull market is likely to continue, the four -year cycle is not valid because financial conditions are expected to remain accommodated, with the growth of the money supply that is likely to accelerate rather than the contract.
The US government and its central bank are in an easing mode and Japan can join Fray because the new PM is a big ultra-stimulator believer Approach to abenomics.
“In the US, the newly elected President Trump wants to run the economy. He regularly talks about America growing up to reduce its debt load,” Hayes said. “Trump is also talking about lowering the cost of housing to release trillion dollars of trapped home equity due to the rapid rising of post-2008 housing prices.”
The Federal Reserve cut off interest rates by 25 basic points around 4% in September 2025 and is expected to implement additional cuts that reach 100 points basis over the next 12 months, signing a more cooperative financial stance.
Finally, Hayes noted that although China may not be as stimulator as the previous Bitcoin Bull running, Beijing’s focus at the end of the deflection suggests that the liquidity is not likely to be depleted, supporting the ongoing price acquisitions for BTC.
Hayes consists of this view by saying: “Listen to our finances masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly say that money will be cheaper and more. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in the hope of a highly possible future.”
