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Fed Rate Cut Bets Lift BTC, Tradfi Frets Over Margin Debt: Crypto Daybook Americas

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By Omkar Godbole (at all times and unless otherwise indicated)

The crypto market is enveloped in a sea of green as bitcoin BTC$115,395.01 It flirted with the $115,000 mark earlier today, extending a four-day climb from $108,000. The Coindesk 20 Index enjoyed a tidy 2% uptick in the last 24 hours, while ZEC, PI, and ENA dazzled with more than 10% gains.

The buzz was about hopes for a fed rate cut this Wednesday and talk of a US-China trade deal, both of which seemed to have an appetite for risk assets.

The uprising was again marked by circulation of wealth. Short-term holders and large whales scooping coins from long-term wallets continue to cash out as BTC prices held strongly above $100,000 in June.

Speaking of big moves, defunct exchange Mt. Gox delayed Creditor payment deadline by one year until October 2026. Sharplink’s play made waves in the ether market, snapping up a whopping 19,271 eth ($78.3 million), According to Blockchain Detective The data nerd. The mammoth purchase shows serious confidence in ETH’s potential.

Meanwhile, Privacy Coin Zec got a bullish shout from the ever-bold Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom Fund. It’s him Forecast A meteoric rise to $10,000, a figure that makes ETH’s current struggle to break $5,000 look like child’s play.

On the institutional front, Coinshares reported Inflows of $921 million in digital asset products last week, a hopeful sign sparked by softer US CPI data. Bitcoin led the charge, while demand for XRP, ETH, and Sol cooled.

StableCoins is stealing the spotlight with some game-changing headlines. Western Union is reported pilot A StableCoin settlement system to break reliance on old-school banks and streamline efficiency through on-chain networks. In Japan, JPYC Inc. officially launched The yen-pegged stablecoin, JPYC, and Kyrgyzstan just joined the StableCoin Party with its national coin, created with the help of Binance.

In traditional markets, the frantic demand for action from retail investors – evident in Surging margin debt And the Record the number of leveraged ETFs -Emerged as a major concern, even optimization built around avoiding US-China trade tensions.

As MorningStar noted in an article last week, “Adding fuel to the fire is concern investors are taking on risk beyond what market fundamentals can support.” Stay Alert!

What to watch

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out Coindesk’s “Crypto has an early week“.

Crypto
- October 27, 10 am: chains (KDA) Chief Business Officer Annelise Osborne hosted a Or In Telegram.
Macros
- October 27, 10:30 am: October. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (prev. -8.7).
Revenue (Estimates based on factSet data)
- PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market.

Token events

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out Coindesk’s “Crypto has an early week“.

Management votes and calls
- Gnosisdao votes to replace sUbgraph-based voting Using on-chain and beacon data, adding STACKED support (SGNO, OSGNO) and improving voting accuracy while removing graph dependency. Voting ends October 28.
Unlocks
Launching a token
- October 27: Vultisig (Vult) launching its token.

Conference

For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out Coindesk’s “Crypto has an early week“.

Token talk

By Oliver Knight

The crypto market’s bounce ahead of Wednesday’s federal reserve rate decision is mirroring the entire Altcoin sector, with the likes of Zec$356.09 and This one$0.5346 Posting double digit gains.
There has also been a notable increase in tokens issued in or before 2018 as BCH$560.02 and Dash$51.48 Both increased by 8% and 9.5% respectively, while ether Eth$4,165.62 Back in bullish territory with an inflow past $4,150.
The reversal in price action was not felt in the two newly released tokens; Plasma XPL$0.3719 and asters Aster$1.0826 Both collapsed further to the downside as waning demand could not stem wave after wave of selling pressure.
Plasma initially rose to as high as $1.67 in the days following its launch, notching $3.3 billion in daily volume in the process. However, it is now trading at $0.36 with daily volume falling to $297 million.
Aster, meanwhile, is trading at $1.07 having lost 43% of its value in the past month. It was initially positioned to be a rival to hyperliquid decentralized derivatives exchanges, but the hype has since withered. After the concerns surrounding the legitimacy of the trading volume on the platform.
Bitcoin Dominance Apparently slightly at 59.2% on Monday, from a low of 57.1% six weeks ago, suggesting that investors prefer the more measured gains of BTC over the more speculative altcoin bets.

Derivatives Positioning

BVIV, which measures BTC’s 30-day implied volatility, is down an annualized 44%, nearly reversing the October 10 spike in a sign of ebbing market stress.
The bias for listed BTC listed BTC weakened across all tenors. However, longer term return risk remains slightly neutral to bearish. The same can be said for ETH, although on the short end, the bias for ETH puts is slightly greater than for BTC.
Last week, traders continued to sell topside (calls) on the CME to collect premium and generate yield on their BTC Longs.
Open interest in futures tied to most cryptocurrencies, excluding XRP, Hype and HBAR, has increased over the past 24 hours, indicating capital inflows amid the price rally.
Although Bitcoin prices climbed to their October 21 high, total open interest in USDT- and USD-denominated perpetual futures on major exchanges remains below the levels seen on October 21. This divergence suggests that foreclosure of trader participation in BTC’s recent rally is limited.

Market movements

BTC is up 3.97% as of 4 PM ET Wednesday at $115,343.39 (24hrs: +2.51%)
ETH up 5.8% to $4,170.55 (24hrs: +4.65%)
Coindesk 20 climbed 4.43% to 3,835.89 (24hrs: +2.34%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate down 5 bps to 2.82%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0032% (3.504% annual) at Kucoin

DXY was down 0.12% at 98.83
Gold futures were down 1.92% at $4,058.20
Silver futures were down 1.77% at $47.72
NIKKEI 225 closed up 2.46% at 50,512.32
Hang Seng closed up 1.05% at 26,433.70
The FTSE was down 0.06% at 9,640.23
The Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.28% at 5,690.65
The DJIA closed Friday up 1.01% at 47,207.12
The S&P 500 closed up 0.79% at 6,791.69
NASDAQ COMPOSITE Closed up 1.15% at 23,204.87
The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.55% at 30,353.07
The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.35% at 2,922.76
The US 10-Year Treasury Rate climbed 2.7 bps to 4.024%
E-Mini S&P 500 futures were up 0.87% at 6,886.25
e-mini NASDAQ-100 futures were up 1.27% at 25,833.50
The E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index was up 0.58% at 47,669.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.84% (0.33%)
Ether to Bitcoin Ratio: 0.03614 (-0.44%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,125 eh/s
HashPrice (Spot): $49.69
Total fees: 2.03 BTC / $229,952
CME Futures Open Interest: 148,460 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 27.4 oz
BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 7.74%

Technical Analysis

Daily price of ETH in Candlestick format. (TradingView) — ETH remains locked in a well-defined downward channel. (TradingView)

Ether continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel and below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a downside bias.
A daily candle close (UTC) above $4,400 would confirm the dual breakout, signaling a rally to $5,000.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (coin): Closed on Friday at $ 354.46 (+9.82%), +2.69% at $ 364 in the pre-market
Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed at $142.05 (+9.39%), +2.84% at $146.09
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $39.82 (+3.16%), +5.12% at $41.86
Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $54.22 (+0.65%), +3.43% at $56.08
Mara Holdings (MARA): Closed at $19.54 (+1.66%), +4.3% at $20.38
Riot Platform (Riot): Closed at $21.42 (+4.54%), +3.97% at $22.27
Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $19.34 (+7.09%), +1.5% at $19.63
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.36 (+9.59%), +4.05% at $20.15
Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $59.63 (+10.38%), +5.65% at $63
Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed at $25.43 (+5.96%), +0.31% at $25.51

Crypto Treasury Companies