Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top stories in the US hour and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see The Americans.
Bitcoin hovered around $101,000 as Friday’s trading day began in Hong Kong, as on-chain analytics firm Cryptoquant warned that market conditions had become “extremely bearish.”
In its latest weekly report, Cryptoquant said that Bitcoin’s fall below the 365-day moving average of $102,000 marked the loss of a key technical and psychological support previously identified at the bottom of this bull cycle. The Firm’s Bull Score Index – a composite measure of market strength – fell to zero for the first time since June 2022, a signal last seen before the previous bear market.
Cryptoquant added that traders realize that today’s price bands point to potential downside targets near $72,000 if BTC fails to recover above $100,000 soon.
It also identified the $91,000 region, based on Metcalfe’s network valuation model, as the next level of structural support. “Failure to retrace the 365-day moving average quickly could trigger a larger correction,” the firm said.
The report follows weeks of weakening fundamentals, including falling flows, reduced network activity, and a flattening of the chain’s key valuation metrics. Cryptoquant analysts said today’s setup resembles late 2021, when a similar break below the long-term average confirmed the start of a prolonged drawdown.
However, this view is not universal.
In a report from earlier this week titled “Defending $100k,” Glassnode wrote That the market remains “cautious, oversold, but not yet deeply capitulated,” with 71% of the supply in profit and unrealized losses contained in just 3.1% of the market cap.
As long-term holders sell and ETF outflows continue, Glassnode says the current phase is a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin slipped as low as $100,420 overnight before recovering slightly to trade around $101,000 in Asian time, ending a week-long decline that wiped nearly 7% from its value.
Eth: Ether fell to an intraday low of $3,285 before returning to $3,310 in early Asian trading, down about 2% on the day and about 13% over the past week.
Gold: Gold bounced toward the $4,000 level on Wednesday, rising 1.5% to $3,989.53 an ounce as investors sought safety amid a global equities sell-off, even as strong US jobs data dampened expectations for further Fed rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Friday, tracking Wall Street’s Tech-Led Tech-Off as AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir fell, as investors awaited Chinese trade data expected to show weaker exports and imports.
Everywhere in Crypto:
- What draftkings and fanduel prediction markets mean for the sports betting biz (Decrypt)
- Samourai Wallet developer sentenced to 5 years in prison for unlicensed money transmission (Coindesk)
- Central Bank of Ireland Fines Coinbase Europe $25 million for breaching anti-money laundering monitoring obligations (The block)
