MIAMI BEACH – When Shayne Coplan launched Polymarket, he didn’t have a team or core funding. All he has is a blockchain, a strong conviction and a laptop.
“I’m a solo founder. I actually started next with no money,” Coplan said in a talk at Cantor Fitzgerald’s Crypto, AI and Blockchain Conference in Miami Beach on Wednesday. “The cool thing about blockchains is that it allows some kid in his bedroom — or their bathroom, office, or whatever it is — to go and innovate and experiment with financial applications.”
He credits the open nature of blockchain for allowing him to create a functioning global market without traditional institutional backing. “The barrier to entry to go build an innovation in traditional fintech is prohibitive for any person trying to create something new, who is young and doesn’t have a lot of capital and doesn’t have a lot of time,” he said.
Polymarket, which launched in 2020, allows users to trade the probability of real-world outcomes—from elections to feed decisions to popular gossip. The platform does not work with polling data or expert predictions. Instead, it allows the market to determine the odds.
“When people are following an election, or an election that has implications for their livelihood, they want to know who’s going to win,” Coplan said. “Polls are okay, here’s a random assortment of people … but they always lean one way or the other. It’s just noise.”
He believes that markets provide something more honest: a price supported by conviction and risk.
“We have this cycle where every time there’s a big election, everyone goes to Polymarket, everyone analyzes it. Then everyone gets up and relates a conspiracy theory about why it’s not accurate,” he said. “If Cuomo is trading at five cents to win $1 … if it’s really worth 40 or 50 cents and it’s trading at five, you should buy it. You should put your money where your mouth is.”
Every trade on the polymarket is peer-to-peer, and prices reflect collective beliefs. “It’s not a function of how much money is put into each candidate,” Coplan explained. “At any given moment, there are yes shares … and if you look at the order book, there are bids and asks.
Whatever the midpoint is, that’s the possibility. That’s the current cost to win $1 if it’s correct. “
Beyond politics, Coplan sees a broader potential: prediction markets as tools for decision-making, even in public policy.
“You can say, what are the odds of Cuomo winning if Sliwa doesn’t go down, and what are the odds of him winning if he goes down?” he said. “From markets, if you structure them properly, you can help make decisions in society on an unprecedented scale.”
Coplan also believes Polymarket can compete with legacy betting platforms by offering something traditional sportsbooks cannot: fairness.
“If you bet or trade the outcome of a game … there’s a pricing monopoly. You’re trading against the house every time,” he said. “They can set whatever prices they want. If you make any money, they can ban you. They can profile you and give you worse prices or cover you.”
“This is America. You see something that’s ineffective and rigged against the consumer – when it’s a financial market, but it’s positioned as an entertainment product designed to get you off – you can’t go and complain when alternative markets come into the market.”
Coplan envisions Polymarket eventually playing a role in sectors such as insurance, where consumers often face bundled services and high premiums.
“A lot of the time, if you’re putting or trying to open against some kind of unique risk, you’re dealing with a company that has a sales team, a risk department … you usually end up paying a bad price,” he said. “What’s great about the polymarket is you can see people creating a polymarket for the same type of risk … people in the risk pricing business can provide liquidity. People who are good at sales can go and enable them to bind those risks.”
He also touched on the role AI agents could easily play in trading markets. “You see a lot of people experimenting with AI agents that can gauge sentiment, monitor the news, and basically form their own opinion … When they see a misconception, they can try to correct the market,” he said. “Even if there’s very little liquidity, or a small subsidy of liquidity, you’re going to have these agents, and people are going to compete to develop the most accurate agents.”
Coplan says the long tail of niche markets — anything related to uncertainty — is where most of the polymarket’s potential lies. “Will it drive more volume? No. But will it unlock a new format of information? Yes,” he said. “Polymarket Odds – The Percent Percent of something – can be expanded into a larger swath of opportunities.”
As Polymarket prepares to scale US presence and onboard new users through a beta exchange, Coplan remains committed to staying ahead of legacy institutions – and building a platform that delivers on the original promise of blockchain.
“We’re just trying to build the best product,” he said. “Something that people want to use, where your opinion matters.”
