Analysts questioned whether November deserved its reputation as the history of Bitcoin’s “strongest month” after the cryptocurrency fell by 10% in the past seven days and briefly fell below $90,000.
“These averages suggest strength, but those numbers are skewed and the current backdrop is anything but normal,” James Harris, the CEO of crypto yield provider Tesseract, told Cointelegraph.
Harris said that while the break below the long-term average is notable, it’s “not the whole picture.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is down 15.37% since the start of the month and is on track for its worst November since 2019, when it closed the month down 17.27%, according to in coinglass.
Bitcoin traded up 1% on the previous day to $93,290, climbing from a low under $89,400 according to on CoinmarketCap.
Harris said comparing the current market environment to previous years “isn’t the same,” and noted that the US government shutdown delayed key economic data for six weeks.
“When it opened, the backlog of information forced investors to reprice inflation and rate expectations almost overnight,” he said.
Confidence among market participants in a federal reserve rate cut in December also fell to 41%, according to in the CME Fedwatch tool.
New Bitcoins will be high by the end of the year, but not likely
Harris said it’s still possible for Bitcoin to gain momentum and push to new all-time highs before the end of the year, but he didn’t bet.
“It’s possible, but not something we expect,” he said.
Bitcoin last reached an all-time high of $125,100 in early October, prompting traders to look to November, historically its strongest month, for a potential continuation of the rally.
Bitcoin saw an average of 41.35% return in November since 2013, a figure that was amplified by a 449% advance in 2013, about 277% higher than the second strongest month of the month’s existence, March.
Bitcoin Shows “Early Signs of Stabilization”
Bitfinex analysts believe the worst of Bitcoin’s drawdown may be over.
“It looks like it’s time for a local bottom to be established soon,” the analysts said in comments shared with Cointelegraph.
“In many historical cycles, sustainable bottoms have formed only after short-term holders have incurred losses and not before,” they added.
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However, November traders are hoping that May will avoid December instead. The Bitfinex team said selling pressure is starting to ease, with “early signs of stabilization following one of the cycle’s sharp corrections.”
Analysts at crypto payment firm B2BinPay agreed that “a strong recovery could be formed quickly.”
“The first significant resistance is in the $97,000-$100,000 band,” they said. “Until BTC attempts to capture it, sentiment is likely to remain defensive.”
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