After an explosive two-year run that pushed Bitcoin to new heights, the tide has turned. In our latest interview, prominent investor and Morgan Creek Capital founder Mark Yusko breaks down why he believes we’ve officially entered a Bitcoin Bear market — and why this one may look very different from the brutal winters of the past.
According to Yusko, the key to understanding what is happening today starts with Bitcoin’s (BTC) fair value. Using network-based models like Metcalfe’s Law, he says that Bitcoin reached only moderately more than fair value at the recent peak—much less exceptional than in previous cycles. That alone, he says, suggests any correction we face is likely to be more subtle.
But that doesn’t mean the market won’t feel the chill. In the interview, Yusko detailed the forces driving Bitcoin down: a slowdown in new buyers, OG wallets finally taking profits, and heavy pressure from futures markets that historically cap price rallies and accelerate declines.
However, he insists that this is not a repeat of 2018 or 2022. Unlike previous cycles, the broader macro environment, reduced foreclosure, institutional adoption, and the continued losses of fiat currencies all act as long-term tails, even as the return of short-term volatility.
More importantly, Yusko discussed where Bitcoin sits within the long arc of technological adoption. He says we’re deep into the “then they’ll fight you” phase, with incumbents resisting the rise of decentralized finance. But, as he notes, better technology always wins.
In this conversation, Yusko offers clear guidance for investors, his vision for the next round and what he sees as Bitcoin’s inevitable trajectory over the coming decade.
Watch the full interview on our YouTube channel to understand what the new bear market means, and why the long-term story remains stronger than ever.
