Canada’s newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently won a Liberal Party leadership to replace Justin Trudeauhas noted that his odds have increased to win the next federal election in the eyes of the polymarket bettors.
Carney already has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian election, compared to 26% a month ago. The leader of conservative opposition Pierre Pilievre was 51%, down from 72% in February.
The next Federal Canadian election is set to take place on October 20, 2025.
However, under the Canadian Westminster system, if the conservatives of the opposition and NDP jointly voted against the minority liberal government in a movement of confidence after parliament Proceeds from prorogation On March 24th, Trudeau requested on January 6As he revealed his resignation plans waiting for a new liberal leader, the government would fall, motivating an election.
Carney closed the space against poilievre in the polymarket – despite a lag between the prophecy and polling markets – pronounced what the polls show.
Conservatives are just a percentage point ahead of the liberal, According to Canadian Pollster Nanos Researchdown from almost a 16-point lead one month ago according to the average polling.
Observers’ credit The dramatic transition to trade threats from the US, with pollsters that indicate -Canada people prefer Carney’s business meaning and central bank experience to his opponent.
It was all a contrast to last year’s US election, where predictions continued to show that Republican candidate Donald Trump was leading his democratic opponents.
The result of the election, as CoinDesk wrote to an editorial at that timewill only surprise those who get their information from CNN.
The crypto on the Canadian campaign trail?
Crypto does not seem to be a major plank of a hypothetical election in Canada. While poilievre Holding a BTC released by CanadaAccording to disclosure, and previously made pro-blockchain and crypto commentsMost of the campaign rhetoric will appear about the trade war.
Also, Carney, to make a mix -halong if not hesitant comments in crypto to his duty as Governor of the Bank of England has not yet spoken about the subject in his new role as a liberal leader.
