The $ 16.5B in Bitcoin options will expire on Friday – does BTC price sink above $ 90k?

Bitcoin (Btc) Investors are preparing for a record-breaking $ 16.5 billion monthly expiry options on March 28. However, the actual impact on the market is expected to be more limited, as the BTC collapse below $ 90,000 caught investor in the guard and incorrect bullish positions.

This shift gives the Bitcoin Bear an important opportunity to escape a potential $ 3 billion loss, a factor that can significantly influence market dynamics in the coming weeks.

Currently, the total open interest for call options (buy) stands at $ 10.5 billion, while placing (sell) options at $ 6 billion. However, $ 7.6 billion in these calls is set to $ 92,000 or higher, which means Bitcoin will need a 6.4% gain from the current price to be viable by March 28 to expire. As a result, the advantage for bullish bets is significantly weakened.

Bitcoin Bulls pray for a “decoupling” if QE restarts

Some analysts introduce Bitcoin’s vulnerable performance to the ongoing global tariff war and us Cuts on government spendingwhich increases the risk of an economic backward. Entrepreneurs are concerned about slower growth, especially in the artificial intelligence sector, which pushed the S&P 500 to a record high on February 19 before falling 7%.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Bulls remains hopeful for a decay from the stock market, despite a 40-day relationship that remains above 70% since early March. Their optimism comes from expanding the base of the currency of central banks and increased Bitcoin adoption of companies such as Gamestop (GME), Rumble (Rum), Metaplanet (Tyo: 3350), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).

As the expiry date approaches options, the bulls and bears each have a strong incentive to influence the price of the Bitcoin area. However, while bullish investors are aimed at levels of more than $ 92,000, their simplification is simply not enough to ensure that the BTC has exceeded this mark. The derivit led the options market with a 74% component, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 8.5% and Binance at 8%.

Due to the current market dynamics, bitcoin bulls hold a strategic advantage that goes to monthly options. For example, if Bitcoin stays at $ 86,500 to 8:00 am UTC on March 28, only $ 2 billion worth to place (sell) the options will be played. This situation suggests bears to drive Bitcoin below $ 84,000, which will increase the amount of actively put options to $ 2.6 billion.

Related: Is buying Gamestop help BTC price hit $ 200k?

Bitcoin Bulls will have an edge if the BTC price passes $ 90,000

Below are five possible situations based on current price trends. Outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open imbalance but exclude complex techniques, such as selling placement options to obtain reversible price exposure.

• Between $ 81,000 and $ 85,000: $ 2.7 billion in calls (buy) compared to $ 2.6 billion placed (sold). The result of the net favors call instruments by $ 100 million.

• Between $ 85,000 and $ 88,000: $ 3.3 billion calls compared to the $ 2 billion placed, favoring calls by $ 1.3 billion.

• Between $ 88,000 and $ 90,000: $ 3.4 billion calls compared to the $ 1.8 billion placed. Favor calls by $ 1.6 billion.

• Between $ 90,000 and $ 92,000: $ 4.4 billion calls compared to the $ 1.4 billion placed, favoring calls of $ 3 billion.

To reduce the losses, the bears should push Bitcoin below $ 84,000 – a 3% collapse – before Expires March 28. This move will increase the value of the Put (Sell) options, strengthening their position.

Conversely, Bulls can maximize their gains by driving a BTC above $ 90,000, which can create ample momentum to promote a bullish trend for April, especially if it flows into the Bitcoin area Funds exchanged by exchange (ETFS) Continue at a strong speed.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be done as legal or investment advice. The views, attitudes, and opinions expressed here are unique and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of the cointelegraph.