Bitcoin price rally at 1,550% in the last time the ‘BTC risk-off’ metric fell to this low

Key Takeaways:

• The Bitcoin risk signal has dropped to 23.7, the lowest since March 2019, indicating a low risk of correction and a high probability of an emerging trend.

• Despite the recent decline in network activity, bullish indicators of MacRO such as the Macro Chain Index (MCI) suggest bitcoin can immediately rally above $ 100,000.

On May 5, the Bitcoin risk-off signal, an indicator that uses Onchain and exchange data to assess correction risk, drops to the lowest level (23.7) for the first time from March 27, 2019, when Bitcoin (BTC) Exchanged for $ 4,000. The signal is currently in the blue zone, with history suggesting a low correction risk and a high probability of a bullish trend. When the oscillator rises above 60 or turns red, it indicates a high risk of bearish movement.

In 2019, the same signal preceded a tedious 1,550% rally that saw Bitcoin sink above $ 68,000 in 2021.

Data from The cryptoquant indicates That the risk-off signal combines six metrics: downside and reversible volatility, exchange of flows, funding rates, open interest, and market capitalization. Together, they provide a balanced view of the correction risk, making a data dedicated data for market trends.

The last time the risk-off signal indicates a low-pissed investment environment, Bitcoin costs $ 4,000. There are many factors that can explain the difference -price variety.

The launch of the Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFS) spot in the US in 2024 opened floods in institutional capital, strengthening demand and stabilizing prices. In fact, ETFs and public companies hold 9% of the Bitcoin supply.

🚨Llatest: ETFs and public companies are now holding 9% of the Bitcoin supply! Spot ETFs owns 5.5% of 1 year after launch, while public companies such as approach hold 3.5%. Institution’s adoption is reorganized $ BtcThe market – less supply, dynamics transfer. 👀👀

(H/T: @ecoinometrics ) pic.twitter.com/ic892rvep2

– Cointelegraph Markets & Research (@cointelegraphmt) May 3, 2025

The data from the Fidelity Digital Assets mentioned The volatility of that bitcoin dropped three to four times the equity indexes, from triple-digit volatility in its early years, as described in the chart below. Between 2019 and 2025, the 1-year annual realized volatility dropped by more than 80%.

This mattress market absorbs capital inflows with less price interruption. Thus, the growing major adoption, regulatory clarity, and the increase in Bitcoin’s role as a fence against inflation has boosted its value, setting up a higher price floor compared to 2019.

Related: The price of Bitcoin generates two BTC futures gaps after Coinbase Premium Flips negative

Bitcoin’s macro indicators glisten bullish signals

Cointelegraph recently reported That the Macro Chain Index (MCI), a composite of the onchain and macroeconomic metrics, exploded a purchase signal for the first time since 2022, it was accurately predicted under the market for $ 15,500.

Historically, MCI’s RSI Crossover preceded the massive rallies, such as more than 500% progress in 2019. Combined with increasing futures open interest and desirable funding rates, MCI suggests that Bitcoin could break $ 100,000 in the coming weeks.

Anonymous Crypto Analyst Darkfost taught The index of that Bitcoin network activity has refused strongly, reflecting the reduced volume of transaction and less sunny active addresses since December 2024. Falling in UTXOS has further indicated the suspicion of demand for block space, a pattern often seen in the bear markets.

However, the analyst explained that it did not confirm a bearish perspective. Macro indicators remain strong bullish, suggesting that this lull can be a strategic point of entry for long -term investors.

Related: How many Bitcoin can Berkshire buy?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.