Bitcoin was about 4% higher than a week ago – good news for digital assets but bad news for the economy.
The recent negative tone of economic data points since last week raised the expectations of the Federal Reserve Cut interest rates On Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoins were more attractive.
Let’s review the data that supports that thesis.
The most important, the US Figures of CPIExit on Thursday. The headline rate is slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation can be stickier than expected.
Prior to that, we had changes on Tuesday to work data. The world’s largest economy has created nearly 1 million fewer jobs than reported to the person completed in March, the Largest Downward Revision In the history of the country.
The numbers followed the monthly job report, which was released last Friday. The US only added 22,000 jobs in August, including Unemployment rises At 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The initial claims of unemployment rose 27,000 to 263,000 – the highest since October 2021.
Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not good for the US economy, so it’s no wonder that the word “stagflation” is beginning to creep back into the macroeconomic commentary.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin – is considered a risk of Wall Street owner – continues to grind higher, leading $ 116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME’s futures gap at 117,300 from August.
Not a surprise, because entrepreneurs also bid the largest risk assets: equality. Just look at the S&P 500 index, which closed in a record For the second day to hope a cutting rate.
So how should entrepreneurs think about the BTC price chart?
In this enthusiastic chart, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from under September of $ 107,500. The 200-day average move rises to $ 102,083, while the short-term price-often used in support of the bull market-increases a record of $ 109,668.
Stocks associated with Bitcoin: a mixed bag
However, Bitcoin’s weekly positive action has not helped the approach (Mstr)The largest of Bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares are almost flat for week. Its rivals perform better: Mara Holdings (Mara) 7% and XXI (Cep) 4%.
Strategy (Mstr) has underperformed Bitcoin year-to-date and continues to walk below the 200-day average move, which is currently $ 355. On the near Thursday of $ 326, testing a major level of long-term support in September 2024 and April 2025.
Company’s MNAV premium compresses below 1.5x when incounting for outstanding replaced debt and preferred stock, or nearly 1.3x based solely on equity value.
The preferred stock Issuing remains muted, with only $ 17 million tapped on Strk and Strf this week, which means most of the issuing money is still flowing Usually sharing. According to CompanyThe options are now listed and trade for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that can provide additional yield to the dividend.
Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks?
The CME’s Fedwatch tool shows entrepreneurs who expect a 25 basis-point of US interest interests in September and has been priced at a total of three rates of reduction by the end of the year.
That is a sentiment at the sign of the sign can turn back to the growth and equality associated with the crypto, underlined by the 10-year US ark short fall below 4% this week.
However, the dollar index (DXY) Continue to hold Multiyear support, a potential point of inflection worth watching.
