Six charts explain why Bitcoin’s return to $ 100k+ can be more durable than January

Bitcoin

is the trading above $ 100,000 again, and investors, susceptible to bias recision, can quickly assume that this event will play as it did in December-January, when the bull’s bull faded, with prices quickly returning to six numbers, which eventually dropped less than $ 75,000.

However, according to the following six charts, the Bitcoin market now appears to be firm than December-January, suggesting a higher probability of a continuing transition higher.

Financial Conditions: (DXY, 10Y, 30y Ani vs BTC)

Financial conditions refer to a variety of economic variables, including interest rates, inflation, credit, and liquidity in the market. They are influenced by the bond of the Benchmark government bond, the US 10-year yield of wealth, the rate of exchange of dollars and other factors.

Lighter financial conditions do not care about gaining risk in financial markets and the economy, while easier conditions have the opposite effect.

As of writing, the financial conditions, represented by the 10-year yield and the dollar index, appear easier than January, favoring a prolonged move higher than BTC.

At the time of press, the dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against the main currencies, stands at 99.60, down by 9% from the high of 109.00 in January. The US 10-year Treasury Note yield stands 4.52%, down 30 basis points from 4.8% in January.

The 30-year yield rose above 5%, re-evaluation of the levels visible in January, but is largely seen as positive for Bitcoin and gold.

More dry powder

The combined capitalization of the market of the top two USD-pegged stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has reached a record of $ 151 billion. That’s almost 9% higher than the average $ 139 billion in December-January, according to Data Source TradingView.

In other words, a larger amount of dry powder is now available for potential investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Turned -bold stakes of direction

BTC runs higher from early April near $ 75,000 is characterized by predominantly institutions Get Bullish Directions Bets rather than arbitration bets.

That is evident through the emerging outflow of the area listed in the US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) and the occupied open interest in the futures of the CME BTC.

According to data source Velo, the notional open interest in CME Bitcoin futures has jumped at $ 17 billion, the highest since Feb.

Conversely, the combined with 11 spots at 11 ETFs now stands at a record of $ 42.7 billion compared to $ 39.8 billion in January, according to investors of data farside investors.

There are no signs of speculation -haaka enthusiasm

Historically, the temporary and major tops of Bitcoin, including December-January One, are characterized by speculation that is enthusiastic in the broader market, leading to a sharp increase of market values ​​for non-serious tokens such as Doge and Shib.

There are no such signs today, along with the Moge’s integrated market cap and shib well below their highs in January.

There are no signs of overwhelming

The Bitcoin Perpetual Futures market shows demand for bullish leveraged bets, obviously, thus, considered BTC trading near record highs.

However, the general positioning remains lightweight, with no signs of excessive incitement of build-up or heating bullish, such as evidence by funding funding rates well below the highs visible in December.

The chart shows funding rates, which determines the cost of handling perpetual futures bets. Positive figure indicates a bias for long and willingness to bulls to pay shorts to keep their positions open. This is a sign of the Bullish sentimental market.

The indicated volatility suggests calm

The Bitcoin market will appear more mild at this time, along with the Dvol Index of the derivit, which measures a 30-day expectation or indicated volatility, which is significantly lower than the levels observed in December-January and March 2024 leading prices.

Low IV suggests traders are not pricing in extreme price swings or uncertainty that usually exists in a super -hot market, indicating a more measured and potentially more sustainable climbing.