Key Takeaways:
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The number of Bitcoin held for more than 10 years increases faster than new coins are mined – 550 BTC/Day compared to 450 issued BTC/day.
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17% of BTC is considered irrational, and projections suggest up to 30% of 2026.
Fidelity Digital Assets released a Report Highlighting a pivotal shift in the Bitcoin supply supply after 2024 halving. The report noted that the “ancient” Bitcoin supply, the coins held for 10 years or more, began to exceed the new release, with 550 BTC entering the ancient day -to -day supply category compared to the 450 BTC issued.
This trend, in conjunction with a steady purchase from institutional investors, has raised a compelling question: can it increase demand to send Bitcoin price to $ 1 million?
The convergence of Bitcoin accumulation and deficiency
The current ancient Bitcoin supply is more than 17% of the total release (3.4 million BTC worth $ 360 billion to $ 107,000/BTC). It shows the stronger belief of the holder, with a sunny reduction that occurs less than 3% of the time. These report projects can reach 20% of 2028 and 25% of 2034, strictly available supply.
At the same time, the institutional investor capital is accelerated. According to Bitwise, Bitcoin inflows It is expected to reach $ 120 billion by 2025 and $ 300 billion by 2026 in its base case scenario.
Different participants drive it: countries-state potentially revitalizing 5% of gold reserves ($ 161.7 billion, or 7.7% of the supply), US states adopted 30% ($ 19.6 billion), wealth management platforms providing 0.5% ($ 300 billion), and public companies that provide billion). In a bull case, flowers can exceed $ 426 billion, absorbing more than 4 million bitcoin (19% of the supply), additional tight liquidity.
The accumulation of this institutional, next to ancient supply growth, suggests a scenario in which a significant portion of Bitcoin supply becomes irrational, potentially strengthening the target prices of analysts due to increased demand.
Related: Price predictions 6/18: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, HYPE, SUI, BCH
Bitcoin up to $ 1 million: a supply-demand thesis
Reaches $ 1 million per Bitcoin Requires a market capitalization of $ 21 trillion, a ten -time increase from current $ 2.10 trillion with 19,880,604 btc minedor 94.66% of 21 million total. Fixed supply and growing motion can facilitate BTC’s next significant milestone.
Historical trends after splitting events (2013, 2017, 2021) show rallies driven by reduced supply growth and increased demand, which supports the thesis that the current dynamics can lead to a similar outcome.
The effect of the ancient supply was apparent, with 17% of the supply Illiquid and expected to grow, the liquid supply decreased. If institutional investors continue to accumulate, 30% of the supply may become irrational by 2026 (6.3 million BTC).
However, some challenges still exist. After the 2024 US election, the ancient supply refused 10% of the days-almost four times the average average-indicating even long-term holders could be sold during volatility. Similarly, five people holding supply reduced 39% of the post-election days, the standard rate three times, linked to sideways price actions in Q1 2025.
This indicates that while the trends of the unknown -recognized are strong, market conditions may impress the supply increase, potentially moderating price appreciation.
However, bitwise mentioned $ 3. Its bear case projects of over $ 150 billion in the flow, while the Bull case exceeds $ 426 billion, absorbing 4,269,000 BTC, emphasizing significant potential demand.
Thus, the ancient supply of Bitcoin and the expected institutional flow forms a narrative of the increasing deficiency. While reaching $ 1 million is a strong target, current trajectors suggest that this is a realistic target price.
Related: Norwegian Crypto Firm K33 raises more funds to buy up to 1,000 BTC
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
