The futures-to-spot basis fell into negative territory, signaling a significant shift in trader sentiment towards de-risking. Futures are now trading below the spot price for the first time since March 2025, shedding the premium that normally reflects strong demand for the stock.
This move to a futures discount phase suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) Traders are increasingly risk-averse, rather than under-pricing BTC’s short-term outlook.
Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin futures-The fundamentals turned negative, signaling caution and de-risking among traders.
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Internal exchange flow surges have historically marked volatility and liquidity stress for BTC.
Bitcoin futures-spot basis indicates two different paths
A negative basis often appears during periods of love position or when markets are preparing for volatility. BTC is currently trading within the “base zone”, a range associated with heavier selling pressure or reduced exposure. Both the seven-day and 30-day moving averages are trending lower, confirming a bearish tilt in the futures market.
However, historical patterns complicate the picture. Since August 2023, every instance of the seven-day SMA turning negative has coincided with a range formation under bull phases. If the market doesn’t fully transition into a bear cycle, it can again serve as an early recovery marker.
If conditions resemble those of January 2022, the signal may instead mark the beginning of a deeper fall. A return above the 0% –0.5% basis range is the first sign of renewed confidence.
Also data shown The BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio reset towards 0.3, signaling that the previously over-correlated market from Q2-Q3 has finally cooled. A lower ratio reflects reduced forced risk and a healthy futures structure.
If bullish momentum returns, this cleaner leverage backdrop could act as a positive catalyst by giving traders room to re-risk without the deterioration seen earlier in the year.
Related: Has the BTC Price Bull Market Disappeared? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
The search for the bottom of bitcoin continues
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay said That flow of in-house exchange adds further weight to the current narrative. This metric measures the amount of BTC transferred between internal exchange wallets, typically for operational or liquidity balancing purposes. While not a direct measure of sales, sharp spikes often coincide with turbulent times and major transfers of major players.
From late 2024 to early 2025, the market experienced massive inward shifting spikes during rapid price rallies, followed by steep corrections. The pattern repeated in May -June 2025 as BTC climbed from $60,000 to $90,000, proving the bullish correlation.
Now, the gauge has rebounded, rising above its previous range of 5-10 in early November. This spike is aligned with BTC’s sharp decline from above $110,000 to $95,000. Historically, such surges have reflected liquidity stress, increased volatility, and price pressure.
Given the combination of negative fundamentals, increasing inward flows, and accelerating downside momentum, BTC appears to continue searching for a bottom.
Related: 95% of bitcoin today is mined: here’s why it matters
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
