Bitcoin falls toward $80K and prints ‘death cross’ as US stocks mimic 2020 COVID-19 crash
Bitcoin (BTC) hit new monthly lows at the April 3 Wall Street open as US unemployment data added to pressure on risk assets.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin gives early April gains as stocks plummet
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed the first trip below $82,000 for BTC/USD since the start of the month.
After initially surging as high as $88,580 as the US government unveiled reciprocal trade tariffs, Bitcoin soon ran out of steam as the reality of the stronger-than-expected measures hit home.
US stocks then followed, with the S&P 500 down over 4% on the day at the time of writing.
“Today’s -3.7% drop puts the S&P 500 on track for its largest daily decline since the 2020 pandemic lockdowns,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X.
“Since the after hours high at 4:25 PM ET yesterday, the S&P 500 has erased nearly $3 TRILLION in market cap.”
S&P 500 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Thereafter, US initial jobless claims came in below estimates, at 219,000 versus the anticipated 228,000, per data from the US Department of Labor (DoL).
“The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 224,000 to 224,250,” an official press release stated.
Stronger labor market trends are traditionally associated with weaker risk-asset performance as they imply that policymakers can keep financial conditions tighter for longer.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool nonetheless continued to see markets favor an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
“As recession odds rise, markets think that the Fed will be forced to cut rates as soon as next month,” Kobeissi added.
Bearish BTC price action could last “3-6 months”
BTC price action predictably continued to disappoint on short timeframes as $80,000 support became uncomfortably close.
Related: Bitcoin price risks drop to $71K as Trump tariffs hurt US business outlook
“Stair step up then elevator down,” popular trader Roman summarized in part of his latest X analysis.
Market commentator Byzantine General flagged short positions increasing across major crypto pairs, concluding that tariffs would ensure that lackluster conditions would continue.
“I could see a stop hunt below the local lows before a pump to squeeze shorts, then probably more chop that slopes downward,” he told X followers.
“I do think that with the tariff responses that are most likely coming upside will be limited.”
Bitcoin and Ethereum market data. Source: Byzantine General/X
Onchain analytics firm Glassnode had more bad news. According to their data, Bitcoin printed a new “death cross” involving the convergence of two midterm moving averages (MAs).
“An onchain analogue to the Death Cross has emerged. The 30-day volume-weighted price of $BTC has crossed below the 180-day, signaling weakening momentum,” an X post announced.
“Historically, this pattern preceded 3–6 months of bearish trends.”
Bitcoin realized price “death cross” impact data. Source: Glassnode/X
Earlier this week, Glassnode observed that speculative sell-offs in recent months have fallen considerably short of volumes traditionally associated with blow-off BTC price tops.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
