Caution in bitcoin (BTC) double top, but a full price crash seems unlikely, says Sygnum’s tischhauser

Bitcoin’s

double top prospects Above the $ 100,000 warrant caution, but a full blown 2022-style crash seems unlikely unless an unexpected black swan hits, according to Digital Asset Banking Group Sygnum’s Head of Investment Research Tischhauser.

“The crypto market is strongly driven by sentiment while major values ​​are challenging; therefore, technical analysis signals such as the duplicate warrant preservation. CoinDesk told an interview.

Bitcoin spent 50 days mainly trading back -back between $ 110,000 and $ 100,000, which signed a fatigue of the uprising near the highs reached in January this year. That motivated some observers, including veteran technical analyst Peter BrandtTo consider the possibility of BTC trend flipping bearish with a double-top pattern.

The double top consists of two consecutive peaks at approximately the same price – near $ 110k in the BTC case – with a trend drawn through the low point between these peaks. The low point in the BTC case is the early April slide up to $ 75,000. Analysts remember that a potentially double top breakdown, involving a collapse from $ 110,000 and a fall below $ 75,000, could lead to a crash of nearly $ 27,000. Yes, you read that right. Such a crash means a 75% slide from the peaks.

Technical patterns, such as the double top, often become self-predicts-once entrepreneurs see the pattern, their collective action reinforces the expected outcome. Thus, it is natural for prospects of double top top above $ 100,000 to cause some precaution and price collapse.

However, only technical ones rarely cause price crashing of 75%. For example, BTC crashing from $ 70,000 to $ 16,000 in 12 months to November 2022 occurred as the Fed’s increase increased assets such as Crypto which formed excessive speculation, which sets the stage for terra blockchain and the FTX exchange death. Both events caused tremendous destruction of wealth.

Bull Run runs

The latest rally, however, is driven mainly by institutional flows than the story or pretending that the defi is better than traditional finance or Ethereum is the new computer in the world, because Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal mentioned Last year.

Since their debut in NASDAQ in January 2024, the 11 seats exchanged by the Bitcoin Exchange (ETFS) are registered net inflows of over $ 48 billion, per data monitored by Farside Investor. Meanwhile, BTC adoption as a corporate treasury asset has taken speed, adding to bull momentum. As with writing time, 141 public companies held 841,693 BTC, According to bitcointreasuries.net.

The flow driven by the latest Bull Run is making it more resilient than the previous bull markets, according to Tischhauser.

“Institutions implement strictly appropriate diligence and risk assessment before they add a new class of possession such as Bitcoin to the model portfolio. But when they do, the final allocation is for long -term. Tischhauser in CoinDesk.

Tischhauser explained that these investment vehicles are sucking liquidity, skewing the demand-supply dynamics in favor of an ongoing climb.

“These investment vehicles are sucking liquidity out of the market, which means, every time a new big-ticket investor hits the market with bids, it responds less and less supply, and the bullish effect on prices becomes more pronounced,” Tischhauser said.

The halving cycle may be dead

The Bearish Double-Top Crash scenario appears to be possible in many observers, as we are in the post-halving year, with history marked the top market tops, which sets the way for markets throughout the year.

Stopping is a programmed Blockchain code of Bitcoin which reduces the speed of BTC supply expansion by 50% every four years. The last stop occurred in April 2024 and reduced per-block BTC reward to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

However, the halving cycle may not open as expected, as the adhesive institutional adoption has a greater stance in the price than miners. Moreover, the BTC sold by miners, who regulated the coins earned to fund operating costs, now costs a small percentage of the average volume of day -to -day trade.

“Changing the leadership of the market means that the four-year cycle of rotation may not play religious balance in the market.