At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin (BTCThe price surrendered to pressure from the sellers, and decreased from 84,500 dollars on March 17, to 81300 dollars at the time of writing this report. This was probably a sale of a sale related to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for a period of two days, which takes place from 18 to 19 March.
Federal Open Market Committee meetings (FOMC) tends to work as a reset in the market. Every time FOMC meets to trade on US monetary policy, Crypto Markets are preparing to influence.
Historically, merchants suffer from risks and reduce the leverage before the announcement, and after the meeting and journalist from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell can be equal.
The press statement of the current FOMC meeting scheduled to be held on Wednesday, March 19, at 2:30 pm Each time, and may lead to major movements in the Bitcoin Market. The analysis of the market behavior leading to its issuance can provide evidence about the next step for Bitcoin.
For merchants, FOMC means volatility
Merchants closely monitor FOMC for any shifts in the federal reserve position on inflation and interest rates.
After the FOMC announces, the Bitcoin price tends to respond sharply. Since the beginning of 2024, BTC prices have often decreased after FOMC decided to maintain prices, as shown in the graph below.
The noticeable exception was the pre -half gathering in February 2024, which also coincided with the launch of the first BTC box. When interest rates were reduced in the United States on September 18, 2024 and 7 November 2024, Bitcoin rose.
However, the third reduction on December 18, 2024 did not result in the same result. The modest decrease by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50 % – 4.75 % represents the highest local bitcoin price at $ 108,000.
BTC/USD scheme for one day with FOMC dates. Souce: Marie Poteriaeava, Tradingview
Deleverge markets before FOMC, except this time
The main indicator that provides an insight into the market morale is the open benefit of Bitcoin – the total number of derivative contracts, most of which are permanent futures for $ 1, which has not been settled.
Historically, Bitcoin’s open interest decreases before FOMC meetings, indicating that traders reduce financial leverage and risk, according to Coinglass -based chart.
Bitcoin Futures open interest and FOMC dates. Source: Mary Potteria, Coinglass
However, this month appeared another style. Despite the bitcoin 12 billion dollars open open keys Earlier this month, in the days before FOMC, there was no noticeable decrease in Bitcoin’s open interest. However, the BTC price, which is unusual and can indicate a strong directional bet.
This may be a sign that merchants are less anxious about the Federal Reserve decision, and they may expect a neutral result. Support this opinion, CME’s Group Fedwatch The tool indicates a possibility of 99 % that the Federal Reserve maintains rates of 4.25 % to 4.50 %.
If the prices remain unchanged, the bitcoin price can continue in the current lower direction. This may be exactly what the excessive liquid whale contemplates when it opened a 40x short center At a value of more than $ 500 million at its peak. However, this situation is now closed.
Related to: Bitcoin is lower than $ 85,000 – the main BTC price levels to watch before FOMC
How do Bitcoin boxes interact?
Unlike Bitcoin whales, investors in the Instant Bitcoin Investment Funds Historically Betc Holdings before FOMC meetings.
Since Spot BTC ETFS was launched in January 2024, most FOMC events coincided with external or external flows, at best, modest flows, according to Coinglass data. The noticeable exception was the highest previous level ever in January 2025, when the immediate Bitcoin ETF investors were unable to resist the desire to buy.
Bitcoin Passat ETF and FOMC dates. Source: Mary Potteria, Coinglass
On March 17, Spot Bitcoin Etfs witnessed $ 275 million of net flow, which represents a month of external flows. This may indicate a shift in investor morale and expectations regarding federal reserve policy decisions.
If instant ETF flows rise before FOMC, investors may expect to obtain a more occurrence of the Federal Reserve, such as indicating future rate discounts or maintaining friendly policies of liquidity.
Investors can also be loaded on Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty. This indicates that some institutional investors believe that Bitcoin will work well regardless of the decision of the Federal Reserve.
Investors can also expect a possible short pressure. If traders expect bitcoin to decrease and place it shortly, a sudden increase in ETF flows may play a role in merchant behaviors and lead to short pressure.
In the aftermath of the FOMC, the BTC price will appear, along with the Onchain data and instant ETF flows whether the last activity is part of the long -term accumulation or just speculation mode.
However, there is one thing that many merchants agree now is that BTC can face a large price movement after the FOMC announcement. It was also developed by the Crypto encryption dealer in X recently mail:
“FOMC tomorrow, a big step is expected.”
Even without price discounts, it can raise the chance of the Federal Reserve Bank of Duvish’s market statements, while their absence may lead to low prices.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each step includes investment and risk trading, and readers must conduct their own research when making a decision.
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