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Bitcoin Futures show fear as a danger to us by the trade war


Key Takeaways:

  • The derivatives data show limited confidence in Bitcoin entrepreneurs despite strong ETF flow, maintaining downside risks on the table.

  • The climb and the collapse of the gold results in the results of growing fears of investors as fiscal stresses and trading disputes are weighed in the feelings of entrepreneurs.

Bitcoin (Btc) has been struggling to recover the bullish momentum since reaching $ 126,219 all-time high on Monday. The powerful area of ​​the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) points to the institutional’s solid demand, but the weakness of the BTC derivatives suggests that entrepreneurs will remain uncertain about whether the $ 117,000 level will hold.

Bitcoin 60-day futures annual premium. Source: Laevitas.CH

Bitcoin’s monthly futures trade in a 7% premium compared to place markets, showing little change in the week. The periods of strong optimization usually drive this premium above 10% as demand for leveraged long positions increases. However, data indicates the confidence of the entrepreneurs has not improved, even after a 14% Bitcoin rally between Sept. 28 and October 7, as the indicator remains close to the same level a month ago.

Bitcoins were behind while recording gold amidst US-china tensions

Gold advanced to a record high near $ 4,050 on Wednesday, which signed that investors were looking for safety as the United States faced a fiscal crisis and slowing economic growth. The well -known Portfolio and Billion Manager -Billions of investors Ray Dalio Says The risks from the US debt spaning bring a “threat to financially followed,” said Bloomberg.

US president Donald Trump has accused China of imposing new port fees on rarely exporting of land minerals, threatening a “massive increase” in Chinese import tariffs in response. The S&P 500 index fell 1.9% while investors are concerned that increasing tensions in trade war can hurt corporate revenues, especially in Artificial Intelligence Sector.

While Bitcoin is often viewed as a form of Digital GoldIts relationship with the S&P 500 remains significant, with a rolling 40-day relationship currently at 73%. The appetite of entrepreneurs appears to be extremely influenced by fears of an upcoming stock market collapse, and the strong demand for short -term US government bonds supports that view.

The US 1-year bond of government bond. Source: Tradingview / Cointelegraph

The yields in the US 1-year treasury fell to 3.61%, near their lowest levels in more than three years, indicating that investors receive a lower return despite continued inflation. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose 2.7% years in the year in August, the highest in six months, and analysts expect to accelerate prices by 2026 while importing duties will be effective.

Bitcoin options 25% Delta Skew (Put-Call) in the derivit. Source: Laevitas.CH

Delta Skew in Bitcoin options went up 8% on Friday, showing that traders remain restless about exposure to downside prices. Interestingly, this indicator finally showed optimization on July 18, following a 13.4% two-week rally-suggesting that whatever prevented the emotion of bitcoin bullish for a little time.

Stablecoin’s demand in China offers an important view of the positioning of entrepreneurs. When investors are in a hurry to get out of the cryptocurrency market, Stablecoins usually trade at a 0.5% or more discount compared to the official US dollar/CNY rate.

Related: Banks will explore the launch of a stablecoin linked to G7 currencies

Tether (USDT/CNY) compared to the US dollar/cny. Source: Okx

Tether has been trading in a slight discount since Wednesday, suggesting entrepreneurs dating cashing out while Bitcoin insists on maintaining bullish momentum. However, the scale returned to the consistency after the BTC fell below $ 120,000, indicating that traders were no longer eager to get out of the crypto market.

In spite of an amazing -awkward $ 5 billion in net inflows in bitcoin Funds exchanged by exchange . The BTC derivatives’ metrics show entrepreneurs are still hesitant to turn, leaving a room for further dropping bitcoin prices.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be done as legal or investment advice. The views, attitudes, and opinions expressed here are unique and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of the cointelegraph.