Bitcoin walked through the most significant month in history for gains – November – with an average increase of 42.51% since 2013 – meaning that Bitcoin could surpass $ 160,000 this month if history rhymes.
However, one crypto analyst noted that there are many Macroeconomic factors is also playing.
“I think there are many seasonal charts, but it should be combined with many other factors,” said crypto analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research.
Ahead, there is an expectation that the US Fed will further lower interest rates, and that the US and China are working on a trade deal; Both developments could be favorable for Bitcoin. However, the government shutdown and US tariffs continue to add to economic uncertainty.
Here’s a breakdown of some key developments to keep your eye on in the weeks ahead.
US / China easing trade tensions
A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday was Seen as a positive step Towards an end to trade tensions between the US and China.
Trump described the talks with the Chinese president in South Korea as “amazing.” Part of the talks included an agreement from Trump to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on the fentanyl trade, resuming soy purchases and ending restrictions on rare earth exports for a year.
Trump told reporters he expects a trade deal with China “pretty soon.”
Trump’s Threat of tariffs Against China is being blamed for the recent crypto crash, which saw $19 billion liquid in just 24 hours on October 11. The Crypto Market has been struggling to recover ever since.
However, Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and a Senior Fellow at its China Initiative, said CBC news that the meeting was more than a “pause” in the trade war, but far from it.
US feeds cut rates, ends quantitative easing
It was just days before FED officials voted for another quarter-point rate cut, lowering the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years.
The next Fed meeting date is set for December 10, 2025. Data from CME’s FedWatch – a tool used in measure Expectations for a rate change by the federal reserve – show traders pricing in a 63% probability of a rate cut.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised Wednesday by saying the move was “not a foregone conclusion.”
Fed cuts are seen as Bullish for Bitcoinbecause the lower cost of borrowing money has historically incentivized investors to trade riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies.
Adding to this is the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1. QT is the process of contracting the central bank’s balance sheet. The purpose of QT is to cool down an overheating economy and prevent a rapid rise in inflation.
Its opposite, quantitative easing, involves central banks injecting more cash into the economy, and is seen as good for crypto, as some of that money flows into alternative assets.
The US government shutdown is extending
The US government shutdown is about to enter its fifth week, approaching the longest in US history, as Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked on a government spending plan.
Related: Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle isn’t dead, expect a 70% crash next crash: VC
On Thursday, Trump called on Republicans to eliminate the “Senate Filibuster” rule, which allows a small group of senators to block the action of the majority, which he blames for the government shutdown.
“The choice is clear – initiate the ‘nuclear option,’ eliminate the filibuster and make America great again!” Trump write In social reality.
An end to the shutdown was seen as a necessary step for the SEC to give the final green light to some crypto ETFs, along with the critical advances of the crypto markets structure bill, also known as The Clarity Act.
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