Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin closed the highest weekly candle for $ 119,310, then rally at $ 123,100.
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Short-Term Holder NAV premium at 16% signal moderate interest, well below Fomo levels.
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Bitcoin ETF spots have entered a powerful purchase regime following the second largest of last week’s $ 1.18 billion.
Bitcoin (Btc) Price posted its most important weekly benefit of 8.74% since early May, closing the highest ever seven-day candle at $ 119,310. In the early hours on Monday, the BTC reached a full time of $ 123,100 in Binance. At current prices around $ 120,000 levels, onchain and market flow data indicate the current rally can continue, especially with the signs that fomo retail is more than nothing.
A major measure of market highlighting in short-term holders (STH) is the Net Asset Value (NAV) Premium, which compares to the market appreciation of the STH handling on their average cost basis. Currently, the NAV premium is seated at 16%, comfortable within the “moderate” interest of the zone marked by the green on the chart.
This range (0-25%) reflects a careful optimization of short-term investors but remains far from the history of excessively heating a 30-35% range, where FOMO-driven purchases are usually marked by local tops.
Adding to Bullish Case, Glassnode There is underlined The volumes of that bitcoin spot jump 50% in the last week, the signing of growing rally participation. However, volumes still sit 23% below the average of the year-to-date, indicating that the wider market is not yet full time. Participation is rising but has not hit an euphoric peak, which adopts that this rally may still have fuel.
The BTC ETF spot indicates a “strong flow regime”
Spot Bitcoin The ETFs posted the second largest single-day flow of single-day recorded with $ 1.18 billion on Thursday. This advancing capital has not only pushed BTC to the new high time; It also signed a structural transfer to market momentum. Historically, such transfers are not short -lived. When the strong flow begins, they continue for many days or even a whole week of trading, providing a stable foundation for prolonged price action.
Ecoometrics mentioned that the current ETF flow regime acts as a “strong purchase” signal, which is diverting from the previously warm “neutral” status and lending additional weight in the uprising.
The Coinbase Premium Index, which Reflect BTC price differences in Coinbase versus Binance, the 14-day simple transfer of average (SMA-14) is currently over zero for the longest stretch of the current bull cycle, indicating prolonged purchase pressure from US institutions and retail investors.
This scale last is strong in early 2023, and its perseverance suggests that US demand continues to play a critical role in supporting price detection, even at these elevated levels.
Related: Bitcoin ‘shows no signs of fatigue’ because it reaches gold with gains for 2025
Weekly Forecasting of another 10% to 15% increase
Bitcoin has broken cleaning above the past full time of $ 111,800, reflecting previous rotation behaviors. Since 2017, a parabolic rally has begun every time BTC has been cleared above the previous top weekly candle.
Bitcoin climbed 167% in late 2020 after the fall above 2017 high to $ 20,000, eventually rushing near $ 69,000 in early 2021. Over the next twist, it gained 49% after cleaning $ 69,000 high in late 2024.
Each breakout showed a clear rate of return reduction, at 49% from 167%, and is now likely to be 10-15% before any short-term correction. Due to this pattern, a reasonable short -term target between $ 132,0000 and $ 138,000 before the momentum slows down.
It is aligned with the logic of weakening upside down as the BTC enters the unspecified territory and undergo price detection. The target price can be tagged in one to two weeks, in accordance with the historical speed of post-breakout acceleration.
Related: ‘Don’t be jailed!’ Bitcoin price analysis sees dip with $ 118.8k engaged
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
