Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin can be parabolic if prices move above $ 115,000 to liquid over $ 7 billion in short positions.
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Onchain indicators enter into excessive heat territory, suggesting prolonged income extraction from BTC investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) Showing strength on May 27, briefly raising $ 110,700 after a strong US equities market and the announcement of Trump Media and Technology Group that it would increase $ 2.5 billion for a Treasury of Bitcoin.
The bullish momentum of Bitcoin is in line with the desired US financial conditions, as noted by Ecoometrics. The macroeconomic dedicated to the bitcoin newsletter Highlighting That the National Financial Condition Index (NFCI) shows a rapid move to the ultra-loose territory after a strict stage in February 2025.
The NFCI, published by Chicago’s Federal Reserve Bank, is monitoring stress in the financial system by accumulating steps such as credit, actions, and funding conditions. When the index moves to more spacious territory, it reflects more accessible access to capital and decreases market stress-conditions that usually encourage risk behavior in investors.
For high-beta assets such as Bitcoin, such periods often coincide with price rallies as capital flows into imaginary markets.
Ecoometrics noted that within four weeks, liquidity returns, creating a supporting macroeconomic environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin. The newsletter mentioned, mentioned,
“That’s the kind of MacRO backdrop where Bitcoin succeeds. The Bitcoin rally in new highs has not come out of nothing. It monitors the same pattern we have seen since 2023: avoiding conditions → capital cycle → risk-on.”
To bitcoin only 2% away from all time high prices, data from coinglass implies That the likelihood of a short squeeze remains high due to significant sale of liquidity. As described below, if Bitcoin violates $ 115,000, more than $ 7 billion in short positions can be liquid, motivating a cascading effect that drives higher prices.
Related: Bitcoin shows signs of ‘easing momentum’ but entrepreneurs still expect $ 150K
Onchain data shows bitcoin in the ‘overheated zone’
While the general momentum remains bullish, the Bitcoin rally has pushed the market into a zone where historical patterns encourage care. Two main indicators of onchain – supply to the bands in the income market and the advanced net utxo supply ratio – are glittering signals consistent with the earlier top of the market.
The Supply to bands in the income market The metric monitors how much the transferring BTC supply is currently profitable. In late May 2025, this figure rose to 19.4 million BTC, approaching historical excess and entering the “super hot zone.” Previously, BTC prices tried this zone on December 17, 2025, followed by a price correction to $ 93,000 from $ 107,000.
At the same time, the Advanced Net Utxo Supply Ratio (NUSR), Comparing the benefits compared to the unprofitable utxos (transaction outputs on the unspent), are brush against the historical ceiling around 0.95 -a level that frequently sells signals. Red markers on the chart indicate earlier occasions when conditions lead to local top tops or long integration -together.
The above data does not guarantee an immediate collapse, but these metrics suggest a high probability of increasing volatility and income short -term.
Related: The Bitcoin 2024 Conference sparks 30% price crash -can Bulls escape this year?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
