Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Flipped Red as BTC Price Drops Below $104,000.
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Bitcoin’s RSI hit its lowest point since April, indicating a potential bottom zone.
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The 200-day EMA support remained important as BTC risks short-term capitulation.
Bitcoin (BTC) extended its recent decline on Friday, sliding to $103,500 and triggering a prominent shift in sentiment in the Onchain market. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges, flipped red on the hourly chart for the first time in weeks.
Earlier this week, BTC attempted To find support around $ 110,000, buoyed by the area’s steady demand from US investors. Coinbase’s premium spiked even to 0.18, the highest reading since March 2024.
However, as the price failed to hold above $110,000 on Thursday, short-term confidence faded. While the hourly premium turned negative, the daily reading remained slightly positive, indicating that long-term US buying support has not completely disappeared, but is currently under strain.
Adding to the bearish pressure, Bitcoin taker selling volume climbed above $4 billion, signaling a wave of market sell orders. The move coincided with the decline of BTC near the short-term holder (STH) that realized the price at $112,370, a key level that now acts as resistance.
Historically, this level has marked the average cost basis for recent buyers, which means that a continued decline below it could accelerate the short-term capitulation towards $100,000.
Related: Bitcoin Holds $105k as US Bank Stocks Recover, Trump Truce Lifts Sentiment
Bitcoin reflects the March -April Bottom Bottom structure
BTC’s current price action closely resembles the March-April Bottom Range, when sharp intra-day wicks eliminated the liquidity built up over 30 days before a gradual recovery began. The pattern suggested that BTC could retest the $100,000 range without necessarily breaking the broader bullish structure, unless it breaks clearly below that level.
The relative relative index or RSI also fell to its lowest level, matching the April low of 34, after which BTC began to recover on the charts.
A key technical signal to watch is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMAS), which BTC has held for nearly six months. In the previous cycle, it maintained this trend from October 2024 to March 2024 before briefly losing its consolidation. At this time, the trendline is held from April to October 2025, with the price likely to lose the trend in the coming days.
If BTC continues to follow its previous fractal, the market may enter a consolidation phase lasting several weeks. In Q1, the recovery phase extended about 45-55 days, forming a real bottom only in late April. Applying the same timeline suggests that a gradual recovery may not materialize until late November or early December.
Crypto trader Dentoshi echoed this view and said,
“$BTC continues to drop around this 3-day 100 Ema of the bull run—but it took 45-96 days to do so.”
Related: Bulcoin ‘Bull Run’ Is Over, Traders Say, With 50% BTC Price Crash Warning
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
