Key points:
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Bitcoin traders’ ability to overcome price resistance at $116,000 could ride on Wednesday’s Fed decision on interest rates and this week’s US-China Trade Summit.
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Pro traders share in BTC price rallies while retail-sized investors buy spot dips, and also liquid futures.
Bitcoin (BTC) The price continues to show strength, rising 13% since the historic liquidation avoidance on October 10, but technical charts indicate that a daily close above $116,000 is needed to lock in a bullish trend reversal.
Data from TRDR shows sellers capping the latest intra-day breakouts above $116,000, and order book data on Binance and Coinbase Exchanges features another wall asking $116,000 (Coinbase spot) and $117,000 to $118,000 (Binance Perps).
As shown in the order book chart on the lower left side, traders pulled traders asking $115,000 to $116,000 as the opportunity to run into resistance increased, and short liquidations topped $49.83 million in the previous 12 hours.
While the bulls are struggling to push BTC above $116,000, some positives shine through the data. Global Exchange Open Interest recovered to $31.48 billion from the October 11 low of $28.11 billion, but it is still quite far from the $40.39 billion seen when Bitcoin traded at $124,600.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are also on the rise, with $260.23 million in net flows over the last three trading sessions, and a notable $477 million inflow on October 21, which was a few days after the price of BTC fell below $108,000.
Data from Hyblock shows larger order size investors (1 million to 10 million) continue to sell rips as retail investors (smaller order size, 1,000 to 10,000) buy dips.
Currently, Hyblock’s aggregate bid-ask ratio (set at 10% depth) shows a heavy order flow, while the real retail Longs and Shorts Accounts Metric shows short positioning rising on Binance.
From an intra-day trading point, some investors may reduce risk exposure ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, where the US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates.
While the Fed is expected to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, traders adjusting their positioning ahead of the announcement has become a regular occurrence in the crypto market.
Related: Bitcoin Price Taps $116k As CME Assesses Odds Of Gap Fill
The activity in the futures markets probably shows some traders who expect PERPs to be at risk and the subsequent fall in long liquidity, or on the contrary, the increase of shorts that are deployed as an opportunity to trigger liquidity on the downside.
Such an outcome can be seen in the chart below, where a cluster of leveraged holdings at $112,000 to $113,000 is currently liquid.
While Wednesday’s FOMC is expected to produce a bullish outcome, an overarching risk event is US President Donald Trump’s Thursday meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping. If the talks break down for some reason, or the market does not see the resulting trade deal as being favorable to the US and global markets, negative impacts could be felt in equities and crypto.
Until the FOMC and US-China trade deal are resolved, it seems likely that Bitcoin Price will continue to bounce between resistance at $116,000 and support at $110,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
