Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin dropped $ 103,500 as entrepreneurs cut off the FOMC risk in the FOMC’s open decision.
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Technical data points to a bounce of bitcoin price between $ 102,000 and $ 104,000.
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Onchain data shows mid-term holders realizing significant income last month.
Bitcoin (Btc) The price slipped to $ 103,300 after entrepreneurs began the risk earlier at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the following interest rate decision that would make public on Wednesday. The correction follows a weekly candle nearby, suggesting a recurrence, while the geopolitical tensions-especially Israeli-Irn-Irn, add to the sentimentalized sentiment.
According to Vector of BitcoinA Swissblock-back market pulse aggregator, the decline is not just macro-driven. It aligns with the time -consuming weakness and the downfall of the onchain network, which points to a cool request in the area. More than $ 434 million in BTC Futures were liquid the previous day, emphasizing that the current move is mainly driven, with entrepreneurs who choose caution rather than fresh exposure.
In spite of this, the bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index – a measured comparison of BTC prices with Coinbase and Binance has remained positive for most of June, which has signed a stable area demand from US investors. However, this request had a limited price effect due to greater market care.
Further pressure is derived from the activity that captures income with the “mid-cycle holders” (6-12 months), which realized $ 904 million On Monday revenue, according to Glassnode. This cohort costs 83% of the total realized gains, a known transition from longer or more than 12-month holders, which previously led to the implementation of income. The shift suggests a rotation in the market dynamics, with more reactive participants who gained gains in previous highs.
However, long-term investor behavior presents an optimistic perspective. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. mentioned Long-term holders (LTHS) are still prevented from large-scale expenditure, a bullish historical pattern.
A healthy MVRV Z-Score-indicating BTC remains undervalued-and the positive coin days destroyed (CDD) momentum clues to selective income retrieval instead of panic. Similar setups in previous cycles preceded the 18-25% rally within 6-8 weeks, indicating a potential price target of $ 130,000 at the end of Q2.
Related: Bitcoin threatens $ 104K ‘Rug Pull’ as the businessman said to come
Bitcoin can drop to $ 102,000, here’s why
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin can approach a short -term bottom between $ 102,000 and $ 104,000, where a dense pocket of liquidity and a historical order block intersect.
Another factor for a potential meant to return around $ 102,000 is the bollinger bands. As described in the chart, a faster technical reaction from $ 102,000 is expected due to the proximity of the middle band, that is, around $ 106,000 acting as dynamic -new resistance, reinforced by respect for the price of history at this level (e.g., early June integration).
Bollinger bands also compressed, which signed an imminent spike of volatility, while the central band, about $ 106,000, acts as a dynamic resistance. A successful reclaiming and close to the top of $ 106,748 can verify a bullish mean reversion to $ 112,000. Conversely, a clean break below $ 100,000 can break -down the setup and target $ 98,000.
Data from alphractal Also framed $ 98,300 as the main support in which short-term holders (STH) remain income. Breaking this threshold can tilt the structure toward a deeper correction. As mentioned by Alphractal:
“As long as Bitcoin remains above the realized price, we can still consider the market to be bullish. The scenario will only change if the BTC loses the $ 98k aggressive level, which can trigger a deeper fall.”
Related: Watch Bitcoin Price Levels Leading Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
