Opinion by: Michael Tabone, Senior Economist at Cointelegraph
On Saturday, June 21, 2025, the The US hit Iran’s nuclear facilitiescausing a short life sinking in the price of bitcoin (Btc). Bitcoin had been rebounding before its week near just under 1.27% of its price before the US military efforts.
Within 10 days in June, the missiles flew and the markets broke, but Bitcoin was performed – not immune to war, but more stable than the fear suggests.
It is within the human nature that wants to find patterns, but the relationship does not mean cause. Looking at the headlines, it’s easy to imagine that things are moving because of a news or the next. Israel hit Iran. Iran is back. The United States dropped 30,000-pounds bunker Busters. Bitcoin drops less than $ 98,286, and headlines shout a touch.
Looking closer, however, the drawdown is well. No shock. No wipeout. And by the time the dust was fixed, Bitcoin closed the week still above six numbers at $ 100,760. The most severe military carrying in the region of the years has moved assets of just 1.27% to 24 hours. That is not a crisis. That is a market that draws news as it takes time.
Whether a person is a businessman, a hodler or a new cryptoverse, which defines the impact of global titles on Bitcoin price action will help separate the signal from the noise, and clarify what moves the market both short and lasting.
The conflict, the charts and the trap caused
The sentiment is important to the risks of risk such as Bitcoin, and the BTC price action has been affected by a recent conflict in the Middle East. Famous gold bug and anti-bitcoiner Peter Schiff asked X. On Sunday, “Besides (Michael Saylor), who buys a dip below $ 100k?” As the BTC price dropped to nearly $ 98k, there was a sufficient response to the market to support the return above the psychological score of six figures near the sun.
The BTC and the price of USD trading are constantly changing, and it is in this range that we can glean the most viewing. When looking at the highs and lows of BTC price action from June 12 to Sunday, we can see that the price of Bitcoin is closed above the range of lows for that day, showing the signs of support at the current level, even with a multiness downward.
A downward trend makes sense when considering that the 200-day moving average For BTC is around $ 95,567. A 200 DMA is a key indicator of long-term trend that often provides market support and resistance levels for assets if the price sinks significantly in a short time.
Related: Bitcoin Sub- $ 100K Dive Price Risks After Trump confirmed Iran Strikes
Bitcoin shows motion in response to news about political conflicts. However, it is often found stability rather fastAnd in longer hours of time, other headlines may have a greater impact on BTC price volatility.
Macro still holds the wheel
Back to the start of 2025 and looking for titles that moved the Crypto Market Medium-TermWe can see that the titles of Macro-News from the United States seem to show more of a relationship than the previous Iran-Israel conflict. One of BTC’s biggest price increases is swearing at US President Donald Trump at January 20In rejecting the price on days to follow without an official word in the crypto industry.
On February 12, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.0% and mainly CPI up to 3.3%, strengthening the federal reserve rate. In March 19thThe Fed cut its GDP forecast to 1.7%, raising the unemployment projection to 4.4%, and raised inflation expectations. In April 4The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that new tariffs can raise inflation and slow growth. On April 10The CPI fell to 2.3%, helping to spark the rate cuts. On May 13The CPI remained at 2.3%, but the main inflation remained sticky at 2.8%. On May 30Personal consumption spending (PCE) dropped to 2.1%, and the core PCE by 2.5%. During the conflict in Iran -israel, on June 11CPI enters 2.4%, and on June 12Producer price index (PPI) printed at 0.2%.
On Tuesday and WednesdayThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates but lowered GDP forecasts to 1.4% and increased inflation projections to 3%. Macro’s fuzzy data has moved Bitcoin for six months more than any single missile launch.
Although the peak of June 16th at 108,915 dollars in conjunction with Reporting of BlackRock 412 million dollars to ETF flows, which is capital, not premium premium.
Bitcoin trends are historically well at major geopolitical events
Bitcoin has a history that has been trending positively in times of geopolitical excitement. During major events such as the US -iran Tensions in 2020, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and now the Iran -israel confinement of 2025, Bitcoin showed upward motion or noticeable price stability. Although it does not act like a traditional safe shelter, it often acts like a unspoken fence in systematic uncertainty.
The Blackrock’s 2024 report adopted it, showing that Bitcoin had released S&P 500 and gold during several previous geopolitical shocks. Their chart features the unique behavior of Bitcoin during crises: while equities are sinking and gold -oscillated, Bitcoin is often trending upward. That pattern was not damaged in June 2025. It did not move forward, but it did not break the pace.
That is important in a world desperate for possessions that do not follow the flock.
Not immune to war, but neither did it move here
When Bitcoin moved to the previous Iran-Israel conflict, it did not respond to ideology. It responds to extermination and flow. That’s not the same thing. Entrepreneurs sell in uncertainty.
Others buy a dip. ETF demand continued. The structure is held.
The recent Iran-Israel conflict headlines have tested Bitcoin’s stability. This is a real-world stress test that does not result in technical breakdown or institutional flight. That is not bullish in a hyped sense; It is bullish in a structural sense.
The owner did not fly when the world could easily turn to the disaster, but that tilt was far away. Black Swan Events can affect all classes of possession and provide investors of potential positive entries. Gauging if the impact of the news will be short, medium or long life is a tricky question to answer.
Opinion by: Michael Tabone, senior economist in cointelegraph.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be done as legal or investment advice. The views, attitudes, and opinions expressed here are unique and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of the cointelegraph.
