Bitcoin’s $ 100k target may be short -lived as BTC entrepreneurs for ‘Sell in May’
A breakout of Bitcoin (BTC) earlier this week had entrepreneurs looking at $ 100,000 in the coming days, an euphoric trade that could be short-lived as a periodic method.
“Historically, the next few months are weak for financial markets, with many investors following the seller in May and walking away,” Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, CoinDesk said in a telegram message.
“That is said, markets have been significantly underperformed in recent months, but this year can bend the trend, with a bitcoin whiping $ 97K and other growth stocks returning to the last few weeks. Poor GDP numbers last week coming out of the US suggest some risk, because another report of negative growth of GDP in the next quarter will be the next GDP. The cut can lead to a rebound as well, “Mei added.
The adage ”Sell in May And leave ”is a long-term saying in the traditional financial market.
It suggests that investors should sell their holdings at the beginning of May and return to the market around November, based on the belief that equity markets are incredible during Tag -day due to lower trading volume, decreased institutional activity, and historical data return.
The phrase date back to the early days of the London Stock Exchange and original “Sell in May and leave, back on St Leger’s day,” referring to a horse racing in mid -September.
What is the data show
Historically, US stock markets have shown a weaker performance from May to October than in November to April, leading to the approach that becomes a seasonal rule-of-thumb for some investors.
Bitcoin also shows repeated arrow patterns, which are often influenced by macro cycles, institutional flow, and retail sentiment. Coinglass data Display the May asset performance is negative or mute recently.
In 2021, the BTC dropped 35%, one of the worst months of that year. In 2022, Mayo was re -negative, with a 15% collapse amid Luna’s fall. In 2023, the BTC was flat on a gentle positive, reflecting the masked volatility.BTC popped up 11% last May and ended May 2019 to 52% -a standout performance from all months following 2018, when crypto markets were usually thought to be matured after that year’s Altcoin cycle.
The Months of Red May were followed by more declines in June, data shows, with four in the past five June months ending in red.
These patterns do not guarantee future performance, they suggest that crypto markets may increasingly respond to both MacRO and Pan -time emotions as equal -equal, especially if more institutional capital enters the space.
Signing a care?
Entrepreneurs can grow carefully based on the time -based history price and momentum fading after a strong Q1 rally. Altcoins, especially meme coin memes, may be particularly vulnerable to pullbacks, given their recent rallies driven by hype and imaginary flow.
“Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average gain of just 1.8% from May to October, with a positive return to nearly 65% of the six months period-below the stronger performance seen from November to April,” Vugar Usi Zade, COO, COO in the Crypto Exchange Bitget, told CoinDesk in a telegram message.
Over the past 12 years, the average Q2 has returned (April-June) for BTC has stood 26%, but with a median of only 7.5%-a performance sign of outlier and repeated volatility.
By Q3 (July-September), the average return decreases to 6%, and the median turns slightly negative, suggesting a post-Q2 fatigue pattern or aggregation, Zade added, mentioning data.
“This time -long overlap suggests cautiously towards May. History, Q4 marked the most powerful Bitcoin period, with an average return of +85.4% and a median +52.3%, while Q3 tends to deliver more muted or negative results,” Zade said.
In short, as Calendars on Wall Street do not bind to crypto, market psychology is still responding to narratives, and “Sell in May” can be a prophecy that fulfills itself-especially if technical ones begin to crack and flip a sentence.
