Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin Onchain data shows a steady depletion of exchange and OTC balances, pointing to long-term accumulation and tight supply.
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In the open interest of BTC near record highs and drying of liquidity, the market is tightly coiled, raising the possibility of a sharp move.
Bitcoin (Btc) The price continues to rise, even though trade volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since the beginning of the 2023–2026 cycle. Retail investor activity is covered, and funding rates recently brushed against negative territory. This is an unusual backdrop for a price that drives towards all times high.
But under the surface, onchain data points to the rest: one stage of stealth accumulation. As the market appears to be calm, the supply side is quietly drained. In the futures of Bitcoin Open interest Pag -Hover near Record Highs, the market is tightly coiled, setting the stage for a perfect storm.
The BTC held in the exchanges continues to collapse
Although BTC DemandEspecially in the US, continues to rise, the number of bitcoins held in the centralized crypto exchange continues to decline. Since the beginning of 2025, balances dropped another 14%, up to 2.5 million BTC – a level last seen in August 2022.
This trend usually indicates the growing confidence of the investor and long-term handling behavior. Coins are transferred to cold storage or custodial wallets, reducing the liquid supply available for sale. Large creatures often withdraw BTC after purchase, strengthening the view of the accumulation. With fewer coins readily available to dump, short-term pressure sellers weaken.
Over-the-counter bitcoin balance plummet
OTCs (over-the-counter) desks, which facilitate large, off-exchange trading, also show signs of supply tightening. While these desks usually operate by matching buyers and sellers, they still rely on handling BTC reserves to enable fast and fantastic implementation.
Currently, reserves are in historical lows. According to the cryptoquant, OTC addresses associated with miners have seen a 19% collapse in balances since January, now holding 134,252 BTCs. This data combines flows from more than two unique “1-hop” addresses connected to mining pools, excluding miners and centralized exchange addresses.
When the exchange and OTC have dried up, the available float retreats. In a rising market, this dynamic can strengthen price movements as demand pursues an increasingly available owner.
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Funding rates have slipped into negative territory
In such a crowded supply environment, although moderate demand can move strictly prices, especially if the market is positioned at Wrong way. The funding rate situation describes well.
Funding rates are a periodical payment between long and short traders in eternal futures contracts, reflecting the market direction bias. Positive rates mean that long ones pay shorts, usually a sign of bullish sentiment. Negative rates indicate short dominance and often indicate local corrections.
However, when the negative funds coincide with the increase in BTC prices, this is a different story. It suggests that despite short traders who are dominant, the market area absorbs pressure, a potential sign of strong underlying demand.
This rare pattern appears three times during this cycle, each followed by a significant price advancement. The fourth example may have occurred recently: between June 6–8, funding rates became negative as the BTC shot at $ 110,000 from $ 104,000.
This type of move suggests that the rally can still have legs, especially if short positions continue to get liquid – a feedback loop that can drive prices even higher.
The Bitcoin market may seem quiet right now, but that may be the point. The refinement of the liquid supply suggests that bitcoin does not increase in the euphoric investor or volume, but in a growing mismatch between heavy use and real demand area. With this type of prefunction, any forced extermination or dislocation of pricing in derivatives can trigger an explosive transition higher.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
