Key takeaways:
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The $ 124,500 Bitcoin height is not likely to be the top of the cycle, with all 30 indicators of peak neutral still.
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Recent losses show new investors submitting while seasoned holders are not guilty.
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Handling above the 20-week EMA keeps the Bitcoin path open to $ 150,000.
Bitcoin’s (Btc) The retreat from its record highs is Fuel concerns Over if the market has been recorded for 2025. But the so -called “$ 124K top” is nothing more than “noise,” according to analyst Merlijn the businessman.
30/30 indicators Bitcoin’s hint has plenty of room to rise
In a Tuesday postMerlijn emphasized that none of the 30’s widely observed indicators of Bitcoin’s peak have flashed red so far.
Historically, the tops of the Bitcoin cycle are in conjunction with many “over heating” signals throughout the well-known onchain tools.
For example, Puell Multiple, which spikes when miners earn uncertain high income, sit at just 1.39, which is below the 2.2 risk zone visible before previous price peaks.
Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score, which compares the price of Bitcoin to its actual flow of capital, remains in the neutral territory rather than the over-warming of the previous tops.
Timely BTC holders are not guilty
Onchain data supports bullish view, which shows a classic capitulation stage.
Latest Bitcoin investors, BTC holders for less than a month, have been sitting on average unlucky losses around -3.50% and now selling, according to data shared by analyst Crazzyblockk.
By contrast, the wider short-term holder (STH) cohort, held for one to six months, remains profitable in an integrated unknown benefit of +4.50%.
“This is a development of the bullish structure,” Crazzyblockk wrote, adding:
“The market will clean its weakest hands, transferring their BTC to holders with a lower cost basis and higher faith (…) this shake, while painful for recent top-buyers, is a certain kind of event that generates a strong support base for the next significant move higher.”
$ 70 million in BTC Longs Liquidated
Onchain analyst AMR Taha is more Argued In favor of a recovery next, citing the recent $ 70 million flush of leveraged longs following BTC prices that sank below $ 111,000 in Binance.
Open interest (Oi) drops significantly after the extermination event. Binance Cumulative Net Taker volume has dropped nearly $ 1 billion, indicating aggressive dominance in sale and capitulation in late consumers.
The next cluster of liquidity will be around $ 117,000- $ 118,000, which can act as a magnet price if BTC is recovering in the coming days. Below, there are Limited support up to around $ 105,000.
“By overleveraged consumers are deleted and open interest reset, the market is structurally healthier,” Taha wrote, adding:
“The absence of a short squeeze suggests latent reversed potential, especially if the BTC has reclaimed basic levels and spanked a short cover.”
Can Bitcoin price still fall for $ 100,000?
In the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s pullback looks less like a top on the market and is like a classic correction in the bull market.
Since early 2023, the BTC has repeatedly posted a sharp drawdown to 20% -30% in range before continuing its climb.
The latest 12% decline is somewhat shallow and still sits above the 20-week exponential transfer of average (20-week EMA; the green wave) near $ 108,000, a degree to act as dynamic support throughout the rally.
A rebound from 20-week EMA can return Bitcoin to challenge all time high to $ 125,500, while keeping the door open for a Wider rally towards $ 150,000If not higher by the end of 2025.
Related: Buy the approach of $ 357m at Bitcoin as the price drops to $ 112k
Conversely, a breakdown below the 20-week EMA may result in a deeper correction Towards a 50-week EMA (the red wave) close to $ 95,300. The support of this wave has historically marked the local bottom of Bitcoin in the earlier pullbacks of the bull market.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
