The crypto market is a sea of red as trade tensions and tight liquidity in the US financial system drive demand for safe-haven Treasury notes.
Bitcoin dropped below the 200-day SMA to trade near $104,500, representing a 6% decline in 24 hours. Other major tokens like ether , Solana , and bnb is down 8% to 12%.
The Coindesk 20 Index fell nearly 9% to 3,389 points. Meanwhile.
According to Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, the sell-off represents a tactical liquidity event amid macro uncertainty.
“Positioning should be defensive, reduce leverage, keep cash dry, and use a staggered spot buy at $104,000-$108,000 if liquidity allows,” Misir said in a note to Coindesk.
“The narrative structures (ETF adoption, Treasury, network foundations) remain intact, but the Environmental Discipline is now: Defend Core BTC, tread carefully on ETH and ALTS, and wait for confirmation of long-term buying flow before risk reconstruction,” he added.
Derivatives Positioning
- The BTC Futures market is showing stability, with open interest holding approximately $25.7 billion and the 3-month annual basis remaining firm in the 5-6% range. In a significant move from recent days, funding rates were flat across all major areas.
- The BTC options market is showing strong, conflicting sentiment. The 24-hour put/call volume shows a slight bullish bias with a 45-55 split favoring puts. However, this is realized by increasing the 1-week 25 delta skew by approximately 21%. This exceptionally high positive skew indicates aggressive positioning and a huge premium paid for short-term call options, which signaled strong conviction for an imminent rally despite active demand for downside protection.
- Coinglass data shows $1.2 billion in 24-hour liquidation, with a 78-22 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($414 million), BTC ($268 million) and others ($109 million) are the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. The Binance Liquidation Heatmap indicates $103,800 as a key liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price collapse.
Token talk
By Oliver Knight
- The entire crypto market is booming on Friday after continuing to the downside with several assets hitting multi-month lows.
- Ether is trading at $3,730 after sliding more than 7% in the past 24 hours, while the likes of BNB, Link and Sui are all up more than 10%.
- The transfer was released by Another $1.2 billion worth of derivatives positions are liquid$840 million on the long side, which added to the problems from last weekend when $19 billion was liquid.
- Equities are also showing weakness with the S&P500 losing 3.3% of its value in the past week, a sell-off that has been mirrored in the more benign and speculative crypto market.
- Much of the Altcoin market depends on the direction of Bitcoin; If it can hold above the psychological support level at $100,000 and perhaps more importantly the level at $98,000, it could provide the impetus for altcoins to recover.
- If those levels are broken onlookers will question whether the crypto market will slide back into a dreaded bear market, a cycle that many analysts suggest will not occur this time due to institutional flows into crypto ETFs and buying power from digital asset asset companies (DATS).
