The crypto market is consolidated, including Bitcoin Returns to $ 113,100 and ether Continue to grapple with the psychological support level at $4,000.
There are two main catalysts from a macro perspective this week: the federal reserve’s interest rate decision due later Wednesday and a potential trade deal between the US and China.
The market is A rate cut is expected At 375-400 basis points (BP), although it is worth noting that if the Fed holds rates steady at 400-425, the market will probably sell because the dollar will rally.
Meanwhile in the Far East, Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet US President Donald Trump as a deal is imminent. An agreement is likely to boost US equities and, by proxy, bitcoin as the largest cryptocurrency is positively correlated to the US stock market.
Derivatives Positioning
By Sasham the One.
- The BTC Futures market is holding steady, with open interest (OI) at $26.8 billion.
- Funding rates, however, are very different: Deribit shows an aggressive spike to 24.64% annual, which signals a strong demand for long positions, while OKX sinks to -3%, where shorts are paid.
- This mix of prolonged high OI and polarized funding rates indicates elevated near-term market volatility and uncertainty, disrupting previously uniform bullish sentiment.
- In the options market, Bitcoin is showing a strong advance in bullish belief. The implied volatility (IV) term structure shows a slight near-backwardation (downward slope) before normalizing to the long-term contango (upward slope).
- Short-term bullish sentiment has increased significantly, with the 250-delta skew at 10% for one-week expiration, meaning traders are paying a large premium for call options. This is further evidenced by the 24-hour plan-call volume, WHIC is strongly in favor of calls (60%).
- Coinglass data shows $514 million in 24-hour liquidation, with a 69-31 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($155 million), BTC ($114 million) and Sol ($57 million) are the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- The binance liquidation heatmap indicates $114,350 as a key liquidation level to monitor, in case the price rises.
Token talk
By Oliver Knight
- The Altcoin market began to show signs of strength on Wednesday, with traders circling higher-beta tokens ahead of potential policy headlines.
- The Trump token, referred to by President Donald Trump in January, led the move, gaining strength as optimism grew that the US and China were closing in on a trade deal.
- Rose, too, was buoyed by robust activity across the base based on protocols. The token added 7.2% as it noted its highest level since the beginning of the month.
- The market still showed a preference for bitcoin, with coinmarketcap’s “altcoin era” The indicator remains at 26/100.
- Altcoin gains were confined to memecoins and defi tokens, while larger tokens traded in tight ranges.
- And Hedera (HBAR) both gave back much of their gains on Wednesday, with the former down 6.9% in 24 hours while Hedera fell 4.5% despite a spot HBAR ETF going live on the NYSE on Tuesday.
