BTC ends with a weak quarter amidst the arrows -periodic pressure as MNAV contracts with Treasury companies
Just ended up what history is the biggest cryptocurrency’s Third-worst week of year with a larger-than-average collapse of 5%. Week 38 effectively closes the third quarter, which is up to 1%, as well as September, managed to hold a flat.
While the numbers are consistent with the historical reputation of the season as one of the vulnerable periods of the year, some catalysts may contribute to underperformance.
On Friday, more than $ 17 billion Options have expired.
A major technical factor remains the basis of short-term holders of $ 110,775, reflecting the average on-chain retrieval price for coins that have moved over the past six months.
Bitcoin tested this level in August, and in bull markets, it usually moves toward this line several times. This year, it will break below that level only once: during the tariff tantrum in April, it dropped to $ 74,500.
When it comes out, it is important to check if Bitcoin remains in a riot characterized by higher and higher lows to get an idea of whether the rally is sustainable.
Analyst Caleb Franzen Highlights that Bitcoin slipped below the 100-day exponential transfer of average (EMA), along with the 200-day EMA sitting at $ 106,186. The previous significantly low was around $ 107,252 on September 1, and for wider trees to stay intact, Bitcoin had to hold the upper level.
Macro backdrop
The US economy has grown at an annual speed of 3.8% in the second quarter, higher than 3.3% estimation and the strongest performance since the second quarter of 2023. The preliminary claim that unemployed dropped 14,000 to 218,000, which entered the bottom of the expectations and marked the lowest levels from mid-July. While spending data is consistent with the market expectation. The US Core PCE price index, the federal reserve of the underlying inflation that excluded food and energy, rose 0.2% in August 2025 from last month.
The yield of the US 10-year treasury bouncing from 4%support, and is now trading near 4.2%. The Dollar Index (DXY) continued to go around the long-term support of 98. Meanwhile, the metals lead the action, with silver nearly $ 45 approaching a full time high at the levels last seen in 1980 and 2011. US equality, temporarily, were just shy of their notes.
Bitcoin remains outlier at more than 10% below its climax.
The equities exposed to bitcoin
Bitcoin treasury companies continue to face severely many-net-asset-value (MNAV) compression. The approach (MSTR) is almost positive on the year-to-date. At one point, it sank below $ 300, a negative return for 2025.
The ratio between strategy and Blackrock Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has been standing at 4.8, the lowest since October 2024, showing how big the Bitcoin’s biggest treasury is that Bitcoin has not changed in the last 12 months.
The Enterprise of the Strategy Strategy is currently 1.44 (until Friday). The cost of the enterprise here comes with all the major sharing of the remaining, total notional debt and the total notional value of Perpetual Perpetual preferred stock minus the company’s cash balance.
The silver lining for MSTR is three of the four perpetual preferred stocks, strk, strc and strf, are all positive return to life as executive chairman Michael Saylor seems to have bought more BTC by these vehicles.
A growing issue for MSTR is the lack of volatility in Bitcoin. The indicated volatility of cryptocurrency – a measure of the hope of the future -change market – has dropped below 40, the lowest of the years.
This is important because Saylor often confirms MSTR as a playing volatility in Bitcoin. For comparison, the indicated volatility of MSTR is at 68.
For the same -equal, increased volatility often attracts speculators, develops trading opportunities and gains investors, so the rejection is likely to act as a headwind.
During this time, the fifth largest Treasury Treasury company of Bitcoin, Metaplanet (3350), holds 25,555 BTC and still has about $ 500 million left to deploy from its international offer. Despite this, its sharing price continues to struggle with 517 yen ($ 3.45), more than 70% below its high time.
The MNAV of the metaplanet dropped to 1.12, strongly from 8.44 in June. Its market capitalization now stands at $ 3.94 billion compared to a Bitcoin NAV of $ 2.9 billion, with an average BTC cost of $ 106,065.
