Calm back to the Bitcoin (BTC) market may be short-lived, potential stage setting for a storm that can trigger significant price volatility, according to views from decentralized Crypto On-chain options platform From.
Since March 12, the BTC has arranged for the $ 80k- $ 85k range to a integration commonly seen after a known move movement. Prices have turned from $ 100k to under $ 80k in recent weeks for many factors, including President Donald Trump’s tariffs and failure about the lack of new purchases in the US Strategic BTC Reserve.
In the latest integration, the major measurements of volatility refuse, approaching the monthly lows. Volatility, however, is mean-reversing, which means the low-volatility regime can immediately set a way for price disturbance, according to Derive.
“The BTC’s weekly and-the-the-the-money (ATM) sinks below 50% to 49%, approaching the monthly lows of 45%. Realizing volatility has also dropped from 91% at the beginning of the month to 54% today,” Nick Forster, founder of the derive, wrote on a recent note shared in CoinDesk.
It is important to note that volatility is agnostic price, meaning that the expected increase in volatility does not indicate the direction of price movement in bitcoin.
“Volatility means revealing, so we can expect it to rise soon, likely to the levels seen in February (60-70%),” Forster added.
Whether prices increase or fall, volatility may increase, suggesting that significant price swings can occur in either direction.
According to Derive, there are many factors that may dispel volatility, including “a ceasefire (or lack of it) in Ukraine, or significant changes in crypto regulation policy under Trump management.”
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision could also move markets.
The central bank is likely to retain unchanged rates, along with entrepreneurs who prote two to three reduction rates next year. But a strong surprise can recharge bulls engines for a sharp move higher.
Potential reductions in the Fed rate, however, may be limited, according to Blackrock.
“Markets have been on the nearly two to three 25 basis of this year’s rate reduction, compared to expectations for one earlier this year. We think it reflects the US retreating even though the economic situation does not point to a fall. Although long uncertainty is hurting the growth, we can still see the inflation of the fed,” Blackrock said on a weekly note.
Expected volatility can occur on the downside if equity markets continue to fall, speeding up crypto prices.
