Key takeaways:
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Gold’s continued pullback could trigger Bitcoin’s rebound, according to many analysts.
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A rally to $150,000-$165,000 by the end of the year is still possible, based on technical analysis.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of tapering off as the rally through its analog rival, gold (xau), is starting to look more overdone.
Bitcoin hints at “Generational Bottom” as gold dips
Gold’s rally appears to have stalled after hitting an all-time high around $4,380 an ounce on Friday, given it has fallen 2.90% since then. However, the precious metal is up more than 62.25% year-to-date.
The daily index of this relative (RSI) readings have been consistently above 70 over the past month, indicating that the asset is overextended and at risk of profit taking.
Bitcoin jumped nearly 4% during gold’s correction, recovering from its worst level in four months near $103,535. Its RSI reading is at its lowest since April, Mirroring an underlying structure That preceded a rebound of 60% or more in the past.
To some analysts, this opposite behavior suggests that the price of Bitcoin is going down.
This includes analyst Pat, who predicted A “generational bottom” for Bitcoin, citing its performance relative to gold over the past four years.
The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio has fallen to historical levels associated with market bottoms, last seen in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Each time, Bitcoin followed rallies between 100% and 600%.
As of mid-October, the ratio dipped below –2.5 again, signaling that BTC may be undervalued compared to gold after the metal’s record run at $4,380. That could mark the beginning of the next phase of Bulcoin.
For the analyst Alex Wacygold’s pullback is similar to the 2020 peak coinciding with a local bitcoin bottom. The question now is whether gold will once again mark the bullish reversal for BTC.
HSBC predicts gold has never topped
Contrary to the growing view that Gold’s record run could be cooling off, HSBC doubled down on its bullish outlook, projecting that the precious metal could climb as high as $5,000 an ounce by 2026.
The bank based on the bullish outlook on geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a the US dollar is weakwhich it said will continue strong demand.
Unlike previous rallies, this one is expected to be driven by long-term investors looking for portfolio stability, rather than short-term speculation.
Gold’s 2025 rally saw several overbought corrections, but each dip resulted in the price moving higher.
The pattern reflects lingering investor confidence amid financial uncertainty, the very conditions HSBC said will keep the rally alive in 2026.
Bitcoin’s own outlook remains highly optimistic, with JPMorgan analysts predicting BTC will reach $165,000 in 2025the argument remains undervalued relative to gold.
Related: Bitcoin Trader says ‘lock in’ as dip-buyers enter below $110k
Similarly, analyst Charles Edwards noted that a decisive breakout above $120,000 could push BTC towards $150,000 “Very fast.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
