Arthur Hayes has a message to Crypto and Bitcoin (BTC) investors who are interested in the federal reserve policy as the United States and China are in a commercial deal: you are watching the wrong institution.
“The real offer is in the Treasury Department. Ignore the Federal Reserve. It doesn’t matter,” Hayes told Coindsk in a recent interview. “Powell was not important in 2022 under a democratic system, and it does not matter now under my fans.”
For Hayes, the Federal Reserve has become a side width. It is claimed that the process of getting rid of the real cash leverage occurs during the era of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin, which quietly reshapes global liquidity with re -purchases and auction strategies designed to manage the enlarged American debt burden.
This flood of liquidity, associated with America’s inability to spend, is the reason that Hayes says that bitcoin is heading to one million dollars by 2028.
“All we care about is whether there are more dollars in the system today more than yesterday,” Hayes said. “This is all that matters.”
But monetary policy is not the only catalyst in his opinion. Hayes sees the political geography that also feeds the fire, especially the diplomacy of trade trade between the United States and China. With both sides, Hayes says it is likely to sign a deal that appears bold on paper but does not change anything from the material.
“It will be a deal on the roof,” he said. “Trump needs to be proven that he was harsh in China. Shi needs to prove that he stood in front of the white man.”
After all, China has proven its policies dating back to the Kofid era, which can bear more economic pain. With politically framed definitions, Hayes believes that the next step will impose taxes on foreign investment, a quiet form of capital monitoring aimed at reducing America’s dependence on foreign buyers without local voters. This is the way that makes the American people swallow the reorganization of trade.
“The only real policy that actually works is capital controls,” he said.
There are potentially multiple tools on the table. Not only is taxes on treasury bonds or foreign stocks, but the most aggressive ideas such as compulsive bonds, or notes for 10 years of paper for 100 years, or high taxes on tax gains from American assets.
It is part of a strategy for re -balance of financial account without forcing Americans to “buy less things”, a message that the politician cannot sell.
“The Americans do not like to do difficult things,” he added. “They don’t want to tell you that you have to consume less.”
China will continue to accumulate in American assets
China, Meanwhile, do not go anywhere. Hayes says he has no choice but to continue to buy American assets even if she pretends otherwise.
“They have to fill the type of things they buy from America … but from a sporting point of view, they cannot stop.”
For Hayes, all this leads to one place: more money wanders in the system, and bitcoin holds the machine.
His wallet reflects that thesis: from 60 to 65 percent in bitcoin, 20 percent in ether (ETH), and the rest of what he calls “shitcoins”.
Why? Because the market is finally looking for the already operating coins.
“We are in the basics season. People are tired of metal currencies that do nothing,” he said.
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