Key Takeaways:
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Onchain’s data shows short-term holdings are accumulating despite volatility.
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Technical Patterns Mirror Past Dogecoin Bull cycles, hinting at a breakout phase at $1.60 by Q1, 2026.
Dogecoin (Doge) experienced a steep fall on Friday, with prices plunging to $0.08 from $0.25 in a sudden 66% flash crash. Despite a quick recovery to $ 0.20, the move filled more than $ 365 million in long positions, more than four times the previous annual high of $ 89 million in long avoidance. While leveraged markets have undergone a massive reset, area traders can take advantage of the situation.
Onchain data suggested that Doge’s long-term fundamentals remain resilient even after the liquidation event. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson said That doge has yet to enter a phase of “euphoria,” and short-term holders continue to accumulate. The analyst said Doge reached its top in December 2024 precisely on the CVDD alpha metric, a tool based on cumulative days of value destroyed used to identify peaks and bottoms.
While the 2024 top is relatively weak in terms of onchain interest, Wedson emphasized that the model has accurately captured every doge top since 2016.
Recent HODL Waves data showed an increasing share of the doge supply held by investors with up to six months of coin age, a sign of renewed speculative inflows. Historically, this has been a signal to higher prices, as new capital entering the market encounters the Doge cap. Supporting this, the MVRV Z-score remained well below the euphoric levels last seen in 2021, indicating that the market is in an early phase of expansion.
Meanwhile, data from cryptoquant indicated Retail positioning remains neutral, with no signs of speculative frenzy. The current balance in retail participation, neither overheated nor apathetic, generally reflects an environment where accumulation outweighs hype.
This phase is often preceded by broader retail flows, suggesting that Doge’s ongoing rally may still have room to extend before peaking.
Related: Crypto ‘Got a Passing Grade’ in Weekend Crash: Bitwise’s Matt Hougan
The uncertainty could be a bullish signal for the Doge
While the sentiment around the Doge appears cautious after the flash crash, this extreme uncertainty is historically among the strongest bullish signals.
Crypto Trader Eternacional noticed That every significant doge rally in history has started after sustaining persistence above the 25-day moving average, breaking a long-term downtrend, and entering a retest phase. The trader said that all these conditions are currently in place, pointing out that Doge tends to start major runs under conditions of lack of belief and fatigue in the market.
Similarly, market analyst entrepreneur Tardigrade highlighted Doge’s current structure mirrors the 2014–2017 bull cycle, indicating that a breakout rally could follow, potentially targeting $1.60 in early 2026.
Related: Data shows 76% of retail traders are long Sol: Will it rebound to $200?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.
