For every buyer there is a seller, and in 2025 sellers will be especially active.
Bitcoin has mostly traded sideways, fluctuating within about a 20% range around $100,000 since the start of 2025.
The prevailing narrative is the “OGS” or long term holder is offloading coins. That’s true, but how much has Bitcoin really changed hands?
According to the analyst Check James.
- 1.91 million BTC from dormant holders for two years or longer.
- 844,000 BTC from 1-2 year holders.
- 1.9 million BTC from 6-12 month holders.
In dollar terms, Checkmate Estimates of the surviving supply reach $500 billion in 2025, which is slightly more than the $470 billion in 2024. However, in terms of BTC, 2024 saw almost 7 million BTC surviving, compared to 4.655 million BTC this year.
There are many factors driving this selling activity. The $100,000 price level represents a significant psychological and profit-taking milestone.
Some long-term holders seek diversification into gold equities or AI.
Some are wary of emerging threats like quantum computing, while others respond to the four-year narrative cycle. Bitcoin is now approximately 18 months post-halving a period that often aligns with market peaks and increased profit taking by long-term holders.
Galaxy Research reached a similar conclusion. According to Alex ThornHead of Galaxy Research, more than 470,000 BTC held for more than five years worth almost $ 50 billion changed hands in 2025, the second largest amount on record after 2024.
When combining 2024 and 2025, nearly half of all 5+ year old Bitcoin spent was transferred during these two years, accounting for 78% of all such BTC spent in dollar terms.
In total, the two years saw more than $104 billion in long-lived coins redistributed from old hands to new, according to the record.
