Key Takeaways:
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ETH has gained 50% in two weeks, and the Elliott Wave models point to a possible $ 9,000 top by early 2026.
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Onchain basis is strong: 28% of ETH is stuck, exchange balances have been lowest since 2016, and new consumer flows are accelerating.
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The use of the network remains close to full capacity, even after multiple fuel limit increases, featuring ongoing demand.
Ether (Eth) has moved by 50% in just two weeks, getting investors’ attention after a large underwhelming cycle. However, at $ 3,730, ETH remains 23% below all time highs from November 2021. Some analysts today Point at target prices that may be more than double its current value.
Can I still lie down the best for the second largest cryptocurrency? Onchain trends, trading flow, and blockchain activity all suggest that the rally can just start.
ETH charts point to undervaluation
Despite its recent gains, ETH appears to be behind the broader sentiment in the market. According to Glassnode, the MVRV Z-Score-which compares the Ethereum market cap to its realized cover (the total capital flow of the property)-is kept well below the values of the climax. While ETH is no longer in the “Bearish” range, it is still trading far from the levels commonly associated with euphoric tops.
Related to Bitcoin, ETH also has plenty of soil to cover. Last year, the BTC rallied at 74% while the ETH dropped by 28%, expanding the performance gap. However, that strength came at a cost: BTC’s dominance is now raised in history. Analysts in Bitcoin Vector suggested ETH is now “under-owned, undervalued, and in catch-up mode.” A twist may be in labor.
In the near term, the $ 4,000 mark stands as a critical psychological and technical barrier. If the ETH breaks above it, many analysts rely on acceleration.
One perspective came from Elliott Wave Analysis, a model that motivated that market prices moved to five repeated, wave patterns driven by psychology. According to Xforceglobal The analysis that was posted a month ago (slightly proven, even a bit ahead of the forecast), the ETH appears to be moving forward through a third -hearted wave. If the pattern holds, this phase can phase around $ 9,000 in the early 2026, given the macro conditions remain supportive. That will mark Ethereum’s next major breakout before the beginning of the next market collapse.
Onchain trends point to supply tightening and increasing demand
Onchain metrics suggest Bullish’s bullish setup is not just speculation -this structure.
Currently, more than 34 million ETHs are staked, representing 28% of 120.7 million total supply. That is the capital that locked the lasting, reducing the circulating supply and signing strong investor beliefs.
The remaining supply is not particularly liquid. Balances of exchange dropped to 16.2 million ETHs, the lowest level since 2016. The sale of liquid is likely to support upward price movements, especially if paired with fresh demand.
That demand seems to be choosing. Since early July, the supply held by first-time buyers jumped nearly 16%, according to Glassnode. The flow of short-term holders suggests growing interest from market participants. Glassnode analysts admitted This is the first sign of a recurrence they have noticed.
Beyond the onchain metrics, this trend can also be seen in a bright increase in Spot ether etfs inflowsthat gained more than $ 4 billion in the past two weeks.
Around 94.4% of ETH supply is currently profitable. However, the undeniable feelings remain surprisingly mute. The NUPL indicator of glassnode (net unrealized profit/loss) registered 0.47 for ETH, a zone labeled “Optimism/Anxiety.” For comparison, Bitcoin reads 0.57 and ripple 0.62 – both entry of “belief/rejection.” It suggests that ETH still has a room to grow before the Euphoria investor kicks.
Ethereum’s work: the expansion of capacity, and demand maintains
Beyond the speculation, the value of ether depends on the actual use, and that activity grows in a gentle but significant way.
While the average transaction fees drop to historical lows – just 0.0004 ETH per move – that doesn’t mean Ethereum is quiet. Instead, it reflects on improved efficiency, especially in most loading that is now administered by the 2S layer. To properly measure the demand in the network, ETH fees can be deceived; The gas offers a clearer view of the actual computational work consumed.
Related: How to use GROK for trading signals in real-time crypto
As Ethereum continues to push for scalability, block gas limits continued to rise – latest in July 2025, following the earlier increase in February 2025, September 2022, May 2021, and June 2020. Notably, after almost every configuration, the blocks were almost instantly resolved and stayed that way. This indicates that demand is not just responding – it already, waiting. Early signs from upgrading this Tuesday to the same pattern repeated. In effect, the Ethereum operates at or near full capacity, with natural demand that continues to appear once the new room is made.
Types of transactions have changed, though. NFTs, which consume most of the Ethereum blockspace of 2021, now represent a small portion. Defi also cooled. The rising is rather a broad category of “other” Dapps: infrastructure protocols, publishing proof rollups, automation, and likely new types of modular apps.
Stablecoin and “vanilla” transactions transfer – the implements of value from one address to another – are also increased. Those signals increased the negotiation and activity of the trading, which is consistent with a bull run development.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
