Key Takeaways:
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ETH Futures Premium shows traders are remaining cautious and avoiding heavy leverage even as banking stocks bounce back from recent credit concerns.
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Ether whale activity near $3,700 suggests limited conviction, though confidence in a quick recovery toward $4,500 remains contained.
Ether (Eth) fell 9.5% on Friday, retesting the $3,700 level and triggering $232 million in leveraged long avoidance over 48 hours. The unexpected correction came amid a broader risk shift fueled by credit concerns after two regional US banks announced write-downs on bad loans.
Ether derivatives The data shows moderate unease among bullish traders, but whale positioning suggests most do not expect a deeper decline. The main question now is whether the $3,700 support will hold as macroeconomic risks intensify.
Ether optionsThe ’25-Delta Skew emerged at 14% on Thursday, a level rarely sustained and often linked to periods of heightened fear. Traders pay a premium for put (sell) options, which signals that market makers remain uneasy about downside risks. Under normal market conditions, the skew usually fluctuates between -6% and +6%.
The S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index recovered some of Thursday’s losses, trading 1.5% higher on Friday. However, credit concerns have left marks on larger financial institutions such as JP Morgan (JPM) and Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), both of which reported losses tied to the automotive sector. According to In Yahoo Finance, auto lending showed the fastest growth among US banking segments.
Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s Bundesbank and a member of the ECB’s management, warned of possible “spillovers” from the private credit market, calling it a “regulatory risk.” Nagel shared His concerns on CNBC as the global private credit market exceeded $1 trillion, adding that “We as regulators, we have to look at it.”
The ETH monthly futures premium versus spot markets slipped to 4%, below the 5% neutral threshold. The sentiment of businessmen was shaken by Flash Crash on October 10and the last known bullish phase was in early February. Ether traders appear increasingly skeptical about the strength of any long-term momentum.
US-China trade tensions deepen, but whales on eth
Part of the fallout for traders comes from deteriorating relations between the US and China, as the ongoing trade war enters a new phase involving export controls on rare earths and sanctions against a South Korean shipping company. US President Donald Trump said on October 10 that the US may respond with additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1.
To determine whether ether whales are truly betting on further downside or simply hedging amid deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, it is useful to examine leading traders on derivatives exchanges. This metric combines data from the futures, margin, and spot markets, offering a clearer view of short-term sentiment.
Top Binance traders reduced their Bullish Bets (Longs) Tuesday through Thursday but later reversed course, increasing their exposure to ETH despite continued price weakness. In contrast, top traders on OKX attempted to time the market by adding exposure near the $3,900 level but ultimately exited as prices fell to $3,700 on Friday.
Related: How to catch market manipulation in altcoins before they crash
ETH derivatives markets are showing no alarming signs – quite the opposite. Bulls’ reluctance to take on leveraged positions appears healthy, especially after the October 10 extreme volatility. However, ether’s Path to $4,500 It is likely to depend on clearer signals from credit conditions and US labor market data, meaning any recovery could take time.
This article is for general informational purposes and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
