Ether (Eth), Ethereum’s native token, shows signs of bullish fatigue after a steep 65% decline over the past three months. The downtrend speed and the oversold conditions demonstrated by various ETH price metrics have investors wondering if a bottom of the market is approaching.
ETH fractals point to a collapse at $ 1,000
The current Ether price action reflects a familiar fractal pattern seen in 2018 and 2022. In both cases, ETH prices have seen euphoric rallies that have ended in sharp breakdowns and long bear markets.
Each of these cycles shared the following key features:
ETH/USD Weekly Price chart. Source: Tradingview
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After the peak of the price (tops of the cycle in the chart above), the ETH returns, often falling to the main levels of Fibonacci.
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The bottoms of the cycle are usually formed once the RSI sinks into oversold territory (below 30), with a price stabilizing near the historic fibonacci zone.
The current setup resembles this structure.
In December 2024, Ether formed a higher up to $ 4,095, while the RSI produced a lower high -providing a variety of bearish differences that were seen in the previous tops. The difference is that this marked the beginning of a sharp correction, similar to the patterns visible in 2018 and 2022.
Currently, the ETH price is closed below the 1.0 fibonacci retracement level around $ 1,550. Meanwhile, the weekly RSI is still above the oversold threshold of 30, which suggests the room for further decline, at least until the reading below 30.
ETH/USD Weekly RSI performance chart. Source: Tradingview
The fractal suggests Ethereum may be in the final leg of its denial, along with the next potential price target for $ 990 – $ 1,240 price ranges, aligned with the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement area.
Source: Mike McGlone
Related: 3 Reasons Ethereum May be a Corner: Eat Warwick, X Hall of Flame
Ethereum NUPL has fallen into ‘capitulation’ – another indicator underneath
Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the “capitulation” zone – an onchain phase where most investors hold ETH. In previous cycles, similar moves in this zone took place near the main bottom of the market.
Ethereum NUPL compared to price prices. Source: Glassnode
In March 2020, the NUPL became negative before the ETH rebuilt following the COVID-19 market crash. A similar pattern appeared in June 2022, when the scale fell into the capitulation territory shortly before Ethereum established a bear market low around $ 880.
Now that the ETH is re -entering this zone, the current setup is loosely reflecting the previous decreases of phases – with the basic levels of fibonacci support near $ 1,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
