XRP (XRP) is bouncing almost 30% after a four-month low in $ 1.61 amid the tension increased tension. However, the rebound may be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain signals that now point to a deeper correction ahead.
XRP cup-and-handle patterns are clues to 40% falling
XRP develops a classic bearish return pattern that can see the price falling at least 40% in the coming weeks.
Called opposite-test-and-handle (IC&H), the pattern forms when the price rotates to a curved descent (cup) followed by a short stages of integration (handle) —All a standard degree of neckline support.
The pattern is confirmed by a breakdown phase, where the price will be damaged below the support and falls by the greater number of maximum pattern height.
On April 19, the XRP entered the pattern formation phase, looking at a decisive close under neckline support around $ 2. In this case, the main target downside is likely to be around $ 1.24, almost 40% below the current prices.
The IC & H target aligned with the 200-3D exponential transfer of the average XRP (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) around $ 1.28-and further in conjunction with a top of November 2024.
In addition, veteran businessman Peter Brandt suggests that the XRP market cap may drop 50% in the coming weeks.
XRP onchain fractal hints in 50% correction
The opposite cup-and-hand pattern of XRP opens the line of behavior in the price of history, signing that its 2025 rally can be raised.
For example, cryptocurrency saw its sharp pullbacks combined —Searly realized price Following major surges in previous cycles, mainly in 2018 and 2021.
For entrepreneurs, the realized price serves as a psychological benchmark, which represents the average price at which the XRP supply was last moved.
When market prices trade beyond this level, most holders earn, which can encourage satisfaction or income. Conversely, if the price is close to the realized price, the fear of losses tend to increase, and the sale of pressure may increase.
In 2025, the XRP passed $ 3.20 before the steam disappeared, repeated patterns seen in previous bull-to-bear cycles. The currently realized price around $ 1, a likely downside target at 2025 down about 50% from current prices.
Interestingly, the $ 1 realized by the target price of XRP is closer to the 200-week EMA (the blue wave in the chart below) to $ 0.81, a target bear market discussed in Cointelegraph’s review in late March.
Adding to the bearish perspective, more than 80% of XRP addresses are currently profitable. The measured history has reached the same levels in the past markets, often preceded by significant revenue cycles and pullbacks.
Related: 81.6% of XRP supply is in revenue, but Korean entrepreneurs are becoming bearish – here’s why
If the history is repeated, similar conditions can be incentive to merchants to exit positions, accelerating XRP secreting to the realized price.
ODDs of XRP Hitting Record Highs decrease
The emotion around the XRP reaching a new all-time high above the $ 3.55 level has deteriorated, according to Polymarket’s prophecy market data.
On April 19, XRP odds that achieved this milestone before 2026 dropped to just 35%, marked a sharp 25% decline from the levels of peak confidence in March, as shown below.
The reversed momentum in the crypto market faded generally in April, in conjunction with a greater decline in the risk of appetite of risk of rising global tariffs under Donald Trump’s trade policies.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
