Gold, the world’s first-world $ 30 trillion assets, exceeded expectations in 2025, rising more than 60% year-to-date to trade around $4,340 per ounce.
One way to assess the strength of gold is by measuring its performance relative to the M2 money supply. (M2 refers to a broad measure of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, savings accounts).
Since its 2022 bottom, gold has gained nearly 150% against M2. However, it is approaching historically significant levels last seen at the peaks of 2011 and 1974. This may suggest that the current rally is nearing a peak.
On the other hand, it can also indicate that the bull market has over run. For example, during the stagflationary period of the 1970s, gold advanced an additional 180% against the M2 money supply before reaching its final peak.
Gold performance compared to bitcoin
Gold’s outperformance extends beyond the money supply. The gold/bitcoin ratio is now around 50% year-to-date.
Bitcoin is now priced at around 24 ounces per BTC, around 40% below its all-time high set in December 2024. In addition, the total capitalization of Bitcoin represents about 7% of the total market value of gold.
Bitcoin is approaching a market cap of $2 trillion, which corresponds to a price level of approximately $100,000. This price is also aligned closely with its 365-day moving average (365dma).
365dma calculates the average closing price of an asset over the past 365 days, which helps to identify long-term trends and potential support or resistance levels.
