Political bettors in polymarkets and other platforms pay attention to Canada as the country goes to polls.
At the end of the country’s 45th election, a contract asking Bettors to guess who the next Prime Minister of Canada gives Mark Carney the Liberal Party a 78% chance, and the Conservatives’ Pierre Pilievre is a 22% shoot.
Political bettors are slightly skeptical of Carney’s opportunities to win than polls, but both point in the same direction. A poll aggregator from public broadcaster CBC Carney’s opportunities are placed at 89%.
There are so many marketsAnother prediction market, provides similar Carney odds to the polymarket.
Fanduel. According to a report from National Post. However, the odds have fallen on the line in the prophecy markets, and it now gives the liberal an almost 80% chance of winning.
Unlike the US election, There is no crypto angle to the north In campaigns of leaders focused on trade war and inflation.
Too big on the rig?
A Growing narrative In some corners of the internet is the polymarket is susceptible to manipulation and its numbers are unreliable, The critic echo What was told in the last weeks of the US election When the site gives Donald Trump a commander’s lead because the polls have shown a crowded race.
Critics said Pilievre’s opportunities were restrained and did not reflect the political sentiment of the population.
However, manipulation in the prophecy markets will be expensive, and there is no conviction that this happens even Polymarket is banned in Canada’s largest province After a removal with its securities regulator.
Data Portal Polymarket Analytics It is shown that the Canadian election contract leads to the platform in open interest, which is the total amount of active, unobtrusive bet and a good measure of market relationships.
Data also shows market The position holding the position is highly distributed, with the largest poilivere holder – no contracting part holding 6% of all shares and the largest carney holder – yes side holding 5%.
A bettor, who cheated on Carney with a six -figure position, who spoke to CoinDesk, said their motives were not a party, and said that the quality of Canadian polling stimulated him that the liberals would win.
“Poilievre needs a 7-point polling error to win and I think that possibility is closer to 7% than his current 23C market price,” businessman Tenadome told CoinDesk through an X DM. “The Pool of Poilievre Bettors seems to be largely very much money that believes in things like China is rigging the polls.”
Currently, the businessman with the largest contract win is “Ball-Sako“With an income of $ 124,890, thanks to Carney’s bets. On the other side of the trade is” Biden4Prez, “which has lost more than $ 98,000 – the most out of any businessman – betting on Pilievre and against Carney.
Read more: Publings of Crypto angle of Canada election
