Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top stories in the US hour and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see The Americans.
Bettors market bettors are increasingly convinced that the US government shutdown will make history. Polymarket and Kalshi contracts are priced at a government resumption after 40 days, over the 35-day record set in 2019.
Polymarket traders Assign the highest probability to a resolution around November 15, while Kalshi’s market duration forecasts an average length of 41.6 days, which will take it to November 11.
Even though most of Washington has shut down, with nearly a million federal employees either furloughed or working without pay, The Federal Reserve remains insulated. The Central Bank operates independently from congressional appropriations, meaning it can still hold policy meetings and adjust rates during the shutdown.
Polymarket Bettors Assign a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming October 29 FOMC meeting, following an 85% chance of another quarter-point cut in December.
The challenge is information: With jobs, inflation, and GDP reports delayed, the Fed could be forced to make back-to-back cuts based on incomplete data.
It may be completely coincidental, but the last prolonged shutdown in 2018–2019 Aligned with the bottom of the Bitcoin bear marketwhen BTC fell just above $3,000 before rebounding strongly after the government opened.
This time, the shutdown coincided with a record rally in gold, which is now over $4,200 an ounce, and a massive $20 billion crypto leverage flush Derivatives markets have been reset.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $108,000, having slipped 1.8% as traders pared weekend gains and risk sentiment weakened, with renewed macro uncertainty and cooling ETF inflows weighing on digital assets.
Eth: Ethereum is retesting the $4,100 resistance as Treasury firms Sharplink and Bitmine Ramp Up accumulation, buying a combined $278 million in ETH over the past week to expand their holdings amid market consolidation.
Gold: Gold fell 5.5% to $4,121.50 and silver was down 7.5% to $48.37 in their sharpest one-day decline in years, as traders took profits after a parabolic rally, although analysts said both metals remained on strong long-term rallies.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose on the day after data showed exports grew 4.2% year on year in September, snapping a four-month decline as stronger shipments to Asia offset weaker demand from the US, while imports climbed 3.3%, beating expectations.
