Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s risk is a correction towards $ 96,500- $ 100,000 if $ 110,000 support failed.
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Onchain and technical patterns suggest a healthy mid-cycle reset, not a full return.
Bitcoin’s (Btc) bounce after a major borrower on the weekend showed signs of fading on Tuesday.
The leading crypto sank 4.65% up to $ 110,000, reflecting a global equity slump after China imposed restrictions on five US companies linked to South Korea’s largest ship manufacturer, warning further revenge.
The $ 110,000 level of Bitcoin was repeatedly flipped between resistance and support in 2025. Earlier the denial triggered 19% -30% denial, while post-july rebounds from this zone fuel 12% -15% rallies.
Let’s check how low BTC can go if $ 110,000 support failed.
Expanding Bitcoin’s wedge clues to $ 100,000
Multiple studies suggest that the BTC price odds drop to a $ 100,000 increase if the $ 110,000 support level fails.
This includes a “Giant Bullish Channel” Highlighting Through the chartist Bitbull, who has shown the price of BTC that changes within a wedge expansion.
Like Tuesday, Bitcoin is in the middle of a correction phase after testing the upper speed of the wedge as a resistance. Historically, corrections have been depleted near the lower channel, in conjunction with the $ 100,000- $ 103,000 area.
This region also aligns with the 50-week exponential transfer of Bitcoin (50-week EMA, represented by the red wave) and the 1.618 Fibonacci Retracement Line, which lends technical weight to it as a potential target zone.
BTC metric suggests $ 96,500 target (or worse)
Bitcoin now trades below the +0.5 standard deviation band ( +0.5σ band; orange) close to $ 119,000, according to The MVRV Extreme of Glassnode pricing.
The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands is an onchain model that monitors how far the current market price deviates from the “fair value,” based on what most of their coins pay (the realized price).
Historically, when this BTC is lost +0.5σ band as support, there is a possibility of returning to the mean band (yellow), which is currently sitting around $ 96,500.
A similar “meaning return -return” phase took place in December 2024 -April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin dropped from +0.5σ (~ 66,980) to the mean band (~ $ 53,900) before reversing intensely.
Related: 3 reasons why a bitcoin rally could be delayed at $ 125k
This fractal suggests a current setup can be another phase of cooling within a wider bull market, a reset to shake excessive action and extreme heat values before the next leg higher.
A collapse below the meaning of the target return, however, can risk the stigma of a bear market, with the next target downside around $ 74,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
