Key Takeaways:
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BTC’s 700% rally from $ 15,500 to $ 124,500 suggests a top market in 2 to 3 months, based on previous cycles.
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The Bitcoin supply in revenue has been raised within 273 days, signing a potential peak of cycle as soon as possible.
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Bitcoin risks lowering the $ 90,000- $ 100,000 range if psychological support at $ 110,000 is lost.
Bitcoin (Btc) has difficulty recovering $ 114,000 on Thursday, as a scene of onchain scale signals that devastate bullish momentum and a classic setup for a market eventually in the end.
Bitcoin market is close to a top of cycle
Bitcoin has had an incapacitated performance in the past three years, rising by 700% in a All-Time High $ 124,500 Last week from a cycle low of $ 15,500 reached in November 2022.
Compared to previous cycles, this performance suggests that the BTC price is approximately two to three months away from the top of the cycle, according to the intelligence firm Glassnode.
Related: Bitcoin analysts point to ‘manipulation’ as BTC prices fall into 17-day low
In the latest report of this on-chain, the glassnode Says:
“In both cycles of 2015–2018 and 2018–2022, all times high has reached about 2-3 months beyond where we are in the current cycle, by relative timing.”
Until August 21, more than 91% of all bitcoin is earnedAnd remained above +1 standard band deviation for more than 273 days in the current rotation, as shown in the chart below. It makes the second lowest note, behind the 2015–2018 cycle in 335 days.
This suggests that the current cycle has delivered a comparable duration of which preceded the top tops to the previous cycles.
When considering against the rear of the onchain income waves over the past two years, data shows similarity to previous tops of cycle
Examines the integrated income realized (in BTC terms) of long-term holders (LTHS) —the investors who held Bitcoin for at least 155 days-from the point of reaching a new cycle all the time high, to the final climax of the circle, declared that the LTHs realized the more income than the earlier rotations.
Such a higher level of LTHS income extraction, comparable to previous euphoric phases, add “another size by the seller’s pressure lens,” Glassnode explained, adding:
“Taken, these signals reinforce the view that the current cycle is stable in his history in the final stage.”
Famous Crypto Analyst Rect Capital Says that if bitcoin is going to peak in the bull market based on history Halving cyclesThat is in the middle of September/mid -October 2025.
“It’s only 1-2 months away.”
Bitcoin’s price refused to $ 114,000
On Wednesday, Bitcoin strongly booked from a $ 112,000 support level, but the price declined at $ 114,000, strengthening the case for further collapse.
This level “needs to be convinced to be lost for lower BTC,” Says Analyst restores capital to an x post, adding:
“A weekly close -born -child in $ 114k will be key too. “
Below, the $ 112,000- $ 110,000 region remains unobtrusive to the latest drawdown, which aligns with the 100-day simple transfer of average.
If Bitcoin faces deeper pullbacks, this zone can serve as a “great purchase opportunity,” according to MN Capital founder Michael Van de Poppe.
Classic price action on #Bitcoin.
This results in a case that we will not ruin the first point of resistance and that we remain a change.
This remains a fact: if the markets drop south of the previous low -> great purchase opportunity. pic.twitter.com/7BMBRS47re
– Michaël Van de Poppe (@cryptomichnl) August 21, 2025
So far, bulls are required Aggressively defend $ 110,000 to $ 112,000 zoneTo avoid returning to $ 100,000 to $ 90,000 range, According to the road crypto trades.
“Anything less and I think the structure will be quite weak.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
